Noise on the TV

It is that time again when the airwaves are crammed with political commercials that more often deceive than inform.

 

One commercial airing for the Obama Campaign is addressing the oft-repeated question that Reagan asked: Are you better off than you were four years ago?  Initially, the campaign dodged the question or even, accidentally, admitted that the country wasn't better off but was headed in the right direction.  The campaign has decided on a strategy.  The economy was bleeding hundreds of thousands of jobs when Obama arrived and now the trend is adding jobs.  It is a clever ad but it is misleading.  The ad implies that the economy would still be losing hundreds of thousands of jobs a month if not for Obama, as if the recession would never have bottomed out.  See, the bleeding stopped so he's a success.  Hardly.  When Obama took office, the unemployment rate was under 8%.  It has been over 8% ever since, which itself is misleading.  Assuming that the same number of people were in the workforce (which they aren't), then the economy hasn't yet recovered.  As to the workforce, if the same number of people were still employed or looking for jobs as were looking in Jan. 2009, the unemployment rate would be over 11%.  People dropping out of the workforce are benefiting the president.  One should note that when an economy begins to truly recover, the unemployment rate ticks up as the discouraged workers reenter the job market.

In another commercial, the Obama Campaign paints Romney as pro-China.  See, a flood of Chinese tires was threatening American jobs so Obama imposed a tariff and Romney was opposed to the tariff.  Anyone who understands trade is opposed to tariffs.  Tariffs make goods more expensive and allow domestic manufactures to be less efficient.  For example, let's suppose that China Widget Company (CWC) can make widgets for $10 and American Widget Company makes them for $15.  AWC needs to become more efficient or be driven out of business.  Yes, that will cost the employees of AWC their jobs but it will benefit the consumers who will save money on widgets.  Less expensive goods make the consumer richer.  However, if we impose a $10 tariff on CWC so that their widgets cost $20, AWC will remain uncompetitive and might even raise its price to $19 a widget.  This makes the consumer poorer.  Romney understands this while Obama does not.

 

In another commercial, Bill Clinton promotes Obama's plan as being superior to the Romney plan, which he claims is the reason for the Great Recession.  Obama's plan has put us $5.4 trillion deeper in debt and has, at best, left the economy no better than when he started.  Too many more successes like this and the country will be bankrupt.

 

Of particular note is that these are all defensive commercials, responding to attacks from the Romney Campaign or its surrogates.  It is generally said that if you are on defense, you're losing.

Start the Presses!

Ben Bernanke has launched QE3, the latest effort to goose the economy with a constant infusion of freshly-printed cash.  In related news, the US credit rating was downgraded to AA- the following day.  One wonders why Bernanke would seek to print more money when the previous two printings demonstrably failed to get the economy rolling.

Though printing money doesn't do much good for the economy, it does wonders for the stock market.  Yes, no sooner had the Fed Chairman announced QE3 than stocks began to climb.  Though more people than ever before own stocks, the majority of them are still owned by a small slice of Americans in the upper income brackets.  So, one might say this is a boon to the rich more than anyone else.  But that's beside the point.  The Dow Jones has long been associated with the state of the economy.  If the Dow is climbing, the economy must be doing well.  No, not necessarily but it makes for a great sound bite.  It is easier to say the economy is roaring back if you can point to a rising stock market.

 

There is more than enough money already sitting out there but banks aren't lending it and businesses aren't spending it.  There is too much uncertainty which is preventing the money from flowing.  Taxmageddon - the expiration of the Bush tax cuts and the imposition of some Obamacare taxes - is just over three months away.  Obamacare is not yet fully-implemented and the associated costs are still not known.  In a recent speech, Obama promised to follow FDR's experimentation to repair the economy; FDR presided over the Great Depression and, despite what everyone on the left says, exacerbated it with his experimentation.  Economic recoveries never took long until government tried to help.

 

In a funny scene in Around the World in 80 Days (the one with Jackie Chan), Phileas tries to help in a fight by offering advice.  Jackie is getting beaten and finally cries, "Stop helping me!"  That's what we need to say to government.

Arab Winter

Shortly after his inauguration, President Obama went to Cairo and announced a new beginning with the Arab world.  His predecessor had been arrogant and didn't understand the Muslim world.  Obama had grown up in Malaysia and been exposed to Islam.  He would bring about excellent relations with the Arab world.  After nearly 4 years of the Obama foreign policy, how are things?

Egypt, an ally since 1970, is in the process of turning into the next Iran.  Despite all the cheerleading from last year and claims from both Republicans and Democrats that Democracy was on the march in the Middle East, the Middle East is instead in flames.  Embassies have been attacked in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, Sudan, and Yemen.  Protests are much more widespread.  The administration proclaims that it is because of a movie that is insulting to Islam.  Less frequently mentioned is the video released on September 10th by the head of al Qaeda calling for revenge against the Americans killing of the number 2 man at al Qaeda, who happened to be Libyan.  Hmmm.  Also not pointed out much is that we had intel of planned attacks on embassies a couple of days earlier.  The administration declared that is wasn't actionable.  Hmmm.

Almost coincident with this, I saw a clip on CBS that was trouncing President Bush for not acting on the August 6th Presidential Daily Brief (PDB) that indicated that bin Laden was determined to strike in the US.  No specific targets had been provided which made it difficult to respond effectively.  Now, if it had said embassies in the Middle East would be targeted, that would have been actionable.  You know, you could have embassy staff on extra alert, beef up security, practice evacuation procedures, and so forth.  Though exactly that intel came in, we did nothing.

Then we have the interesting news that says Obama misses roughly half of the PDBs.  If Bush had done that, he would have been excoriated by the press.  Hardly a peep with Obama.

Obama's foreign policy can be summed up in five words: Osama bin Laden is dead.  Everything else is in shambles.  Our allies have been treated badly (Israel, Britain, Poland) in an effort to win over our adversaries (Russia, Iran).  While Obama hesitated in backing a revolution against a known enemy - Iran, he jumped on the bandwagon for a revolution against a longtime ally - Egypt.  Yes, dictators have been dislodged but what is replacing them?  Jihadist Islamist is what.  That's going from bad to worse.  Unfortunately for Obama, the inevitable blow up of his policy is kicking in just as the election looms.

Also disappointing was Secretary Clinton's comments on the death of Ambassador Stevens.  To hear her tell it, she doesn't know the facts on the ground in Libya.  It was widely reported that some of the rebels during last year's uprising were from al Qaeda.  Throughout the Arab Spring, there has been this crazy notion that people living under the iron thumb of dictators in Islamic countries would suddenly become secular democrats.  It is amazing how many people in high office are surprised that it isn't working out that way.  These people need to read some history books.

Random Thoughts

Michelle's Recollections

 

You see, even though back then Barack was a Senator and a presidential candidate…to me, he was still the guy who’d picked me up for our dates in a car that was so rusted out, I could actually see the pavement going by through a hole in the passenger side door…he was the guy whose proudest possession was a coffee table he’d found in a dumpster, and whose only pair of decent shoes was half a size too small.

First Lady Michelle Obama

That is what Ms. Obama said in her speech last night but I find myself disbelieving.  Michelle and Barack met in 1989, 6 years after he had graduated Columbia.  He was attending Harvard at the time (1988 to 1991) where he got his J.D.  Michelle had graduated Princeton and then got her JD at Harvard in 1988 but she was interested in dating a man who couldn't get shoes that fit?  On another point, they met while he was working at a law firm in Chicago; what did he wear there?  My grandfather detested lawyers but he'd probably agree they dressed well.  If I knew a guy who graduated from an Ivy League school and was proud of furniture acquired from a dumpster, I'd tell him to stop screwing up his life.  Maybe Michelle did exactly that.

 

Tax Now or Tax Later

 

I listen to EconTalk, a podcast by Russ Roberts of George Mason University.  He recently had a discussion that explained how government can pay for things by taxing now or by borrowing which amounts to taxing later.  Our skyrocketing debt (broke $16 trillion) indicates which path has been chosen.  The people who are enjoying the current benefits are deferring the costs to future taxpayers.  Sometimes, that is appropriate.  For instance, borrowing money to build a school that those future taxpayers will attend could be argued to be reasonable.  Borrowing money to pay for healthcare, retirement, food stamps, and other ephemeral social programs is not reasonable.  Politicians love funding through borrowing because it allows them to have the benefit of spending without the penalty of taxes.  Unfortunately, the bill eventually comes due for those future taxpayers as Greece is discovering.

 

The Race Card

 

Back when Obama was elected, I celebrated one thing: Racism in America had finally been purged.  Sadly, it turns out that I was completely wrong.  Now everything is racism.  It is racist to point out that the debt has soared under Obama.  It is racist to mention Chicago in relation to Obama's campaign.  It is racist to call Obama the Food Stamp President though Food Stamp use has gone from 30 million to 46 million people.  Chris Matthews is foaming at the mouth with constant allegations of racism.  I have had a family member imply I was racist for opposing Obama.  The point of the racism charge is to silence the opposition but with its frequent use, it is becoming a punch line.

 

Voter ID

 

Democrats are opposed to Voter ID laws, claiming that they will disenfranchise minorities and the elderly.  In other news, the Democratic Convention in Charlotte requires photo ID to enter.

 

Booing God

 

The Democratic Platform had purged any mention of God.  This did not play well so the platform was rewritten to include God.  There was a floor vote that required a two-thirds majority to put God back in the platform.  Watching the vote, it is obvious that that bar was not met.  Nonetheless, the motion was declared successful and there was much booing from half the delegates.

 

Can't have an Empty Chair

 

Obama's planned acceptance speech at a 70,000 seat stadium was nixed in favor of the 20,000 seat auditorium of the convention.  It is said that potential inclement weather is to blame.  Republicans are saying that Obama can no longer fill a 70,000 seat stadium and empty seats would recall Clint Eastwood's conversation with an empty chair.  I am skeptical of the weather claim.  Obama should pray for a hard rain tomorrow night to bolster the claim.  A sunny day will look bad.