The End of Pax Americana

In the Ancient World, there was a period that has come to be called the Pax Romana, the Roman Peace.  After two centuries of almost continuous warfare, Augustus brought about an era of peace in the wake of his victory over Antony and Cleopatra.  This extended period of no warfare was unknown to Romans but not unwelcome.  It lasted for two hundred years but came to an end with Commodus (Joaquin Phoenix in Gladiator).

 

Based on this Roman example, historians have picked out other similar time and titled them for the dominant power that secured the peace.  After Napoleon's final defeat at Waterloo, Britain became the dominant power around the globe.  Its mighty navy protected the seas and thereby promoted trade and comity on the waves.  This Pax Britannica lasted until World War I.  It was not until after World War II that the United States took the reins from Britain and established the Pax Americana.  Of course, there have been wars during this period but they have not touched the American mainland - terrorist attacks excepted.

 

Barack Obama has refused to maintain the Pax Americana.  From the very start, he apologized for America's past arrogance and declared that we had no business telling other countries what they should and shouldn't do.  He abandoned allies like Poland to curry favor with opponents like Russia.  He abandoned Iraq and is somehow bemused that ISIS arose in the fertile power vacuum he left.  He was a cheerleader for the Arab Spring which has toppled our former allies - though admittedly dictators - and provided more fertile soil for jihadists; that was not a good tradeoff.  The Middle East is in ruins and expelling refugees at an alarming rate.  Iran is on the rise and aligning itself with Russia.  Russia has become a firm supporter of Assad in Syria, a dictator that Obama long ago demanded step down.  Russia, whom Romney identified as our number one geopolitical adversary in the 2012 campaign, is securing a foothold in the Middle East while we retreat from it.

 

As happened with the Pax Britannica, America is finding it more difficult to pay for the peace.  With an economy that has stagnated for the better part of a decade and a rapidly growing welfare state to support, it is easier to cut the military than transfer payments to voters.

 

At the UN today, Vladimir Putin laid the blame for Middle Eastern turmoil on the West.  And he was right!  Obama has left a power vacuum and Putin is only too happy to accept this gift.  During the Cold War, we funded the Mujahidin in Afghanistan, a country with relatively little in the way of natural resources.  Now we are handing over the whole of the Middle East, a magnificent oil producer, without resistance.

 

I rather doubt we will have a Pax Russia to follow America's abdication. 

Arab Winter

Shortly after his inauguration, President Obama went to Cairo and announced a new beginning with the Arab world.  His predecessor had been arrogant and didn't understand the Muslim world.  Obama had grown up in Malaysia and been exposed to Islam.  He would bring about excellent relations with the Arab world.  After nearly 4 years of the Obama foreign policy, how are things?

Egypt, an ally since 1970, is in the process of turning into the next Iran.  Despite all the cheerleading from last year and claims from both Republicans and Democrats that Democracy was on the march in the Middle East, the Middle East is instead in flames.  Embassies have been attacked in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, Sudan, and Yemen.  Protests are much more widespread.  The administration proclaims that it is because of a movie that is insulting to Islam.  Less frequently mentioned is the video released on September 10th by the head of al Qaeda calling for revenge against the Americans killing of the number 2 man at al Qaeda, who happened to be Libyan.  Hmmm.  Also not pointed out much is that we had intel of planned attacks on embassies a couple of days earlier.  The administration declared that is wasn't actionable.  Hmmm.

Almost coincident with this, I saw a clip on CBS that was trouncing President Bush for not acting on the August 6th Presidential Daily Brief (PDB) that indicated that bin Laden was determined to strike in the US.  No specific targets had been provided which made it difficult to respond effectively.  Now, if it had said embassies in the Middle East would be targeted, that would have been actionable.  You know, you could have embassy staff on extra alert, beef up security, practice evacuation procedures, and so forth.  Though exactly that intel came in, we did nothing.

Then we have the interesting news that says Obama misses roughly half of the PDBs.  If Bush had done that, he would have been excoriated by the press.  Hardly a peep with Obama.

Obama's foreign policy can be summed up in five words: Osama bin Laden is dead.  Everything else is in shambles.  Our allies have been treated badly (Israel, Britain, Poland) in an effort to win over our adversaries (Russia, Iran).  While Obama hesitated in backing a revolution against a known enemy - Iran, he jumped on the bandwagon for a revolution against a longtime ally - Egypt.  Yes, dictators have been dislodged but what is replacing them?  Jihadist Islamist is what.  That's going from bad to worse.  Unfortunately for Obama, the inevitable blow up of his policy is kicking in just as the election looms.

Also disappointing was Secretary Clinton's comments on the death of Ambassador Stevens.  To hear her tell it, she doesn't know the facts on the ground in Libya.  It was widely reported that some of the rebels during last year's uprising were from al Qaeda.  Throughout the Arab Spring, there has been this crazy notion that people living under the iron thumb of dictators in Islamic countries would suddenly become secular democrats.  It is amazing how many people in high office are surprised that it isn't working out that way.  These people need to read some history books.