With yesterday's victories in New Jersey and Virginia, there are claims that the political tide has shifted and now Democrats will start retaking power. That was surely the case when Republican Bob McDonald won the gubernatorial race in 2009 in the wake of President Obama's 2008 victory. Same thing, different parties. Right? Not entirely.
Donald Trump lost Virginia in the 2016 election, receiving 44% of the votes. Ed Gillespie did slightly better than Trump, gaining 45% of the votes. Virginia voted Democratic last year and it voted Democratic this year. It went from one Democratic governor to another, which should not be taken as a sign of big political shift.
Let's consider when Bob McDonnell beat Creigh Deeds in 2009. Barack Obama had won Virginia in 2008 by a 52 to 46 margin over John McCain. The governor was Tim Kaine, Hillary's future VP nominee. Despite having voted by 6 points for the Democrat in 2008, the state elected the Republican by an 18 point margin, 59 to 41. That is a massive shift. Gillespie actually picked up slightly more support than Trump had (45 Gillepsie vs 44 Trump) while Deeds lost a huge swath of Obama voters (41 Deeds vs 52 Obama). Yesterday's election was a status quo, not an earthquake like 2009.
Donald Trump lost New Jersey, receiving 41% of the votes. Kim Guadagno won 42% of the votes in her failed run for governor. Therefore, she too did slightly better than Trump himself. However, this election switched the governor from Republican to Democrat, which makes it more significant than Virginia. Hillary won New Jersey 55 to 41. Phil Murphy won New Jersey 56 to 42. Hardly a sea change.
Again, let's go back to 2009 race. Obama trounced McCain, 57 to 42. The following year, Republican Chris Christie beat the incumbent, Democrat Jon Corzine, 49 to 45. Corzine lost 12 points from Obama's support. That's a tidal wave.
In 2009, the Virginia and New Jersey races were dire warnings to the Democrats that they mostly ignored. In 2017, these represent little to no change from 2016.
These numbers are actually cause for concern regarding Democrat chances next year. If results just match the presidential election - as these two do - then the Republicans are going to get a much bigger majority in the Senate and hold the House. Therefore, it is important for the Democrats to frame this status quo election as a momentum shift while the victory is fresh in the votes' minds.
