Presidential States

If someone were to ask "Which president was born in Illinois?" most people would answer, "Abraham Lincoln."  Illinois is known as the Land of Lincoln, after all.  Wrong.  The correct answer is Ronald Reagan.  Often times, the state where the president rose to political prominence is not the state in which they were born.  Interestingly, some states have produced a lot more presidents than others.  With only 13 states in the beginning, the selection was limited, but even with 50, fewer than half have produced a president.

Virginia tops the list in producing presidents.  Eight presidents were born in this state: George Washington (1), Thomas Jefferson (3), James Madison (4), James Monroe (5), William Henry Harrison (9), John Tyler (10), Zachary Taylor (12), and Woodrow Wilson (28).  William Henry Harrison rose to prominence in the west - which was Indiana Territory - before being elected president.  Zachary Taylor's family moved to Kentucky in his childhood, but he spent his life along the frontiers in the Army.  Woodrow Wilson's political career was in New Jersey though he sympathized with the South.

Ohio is the second ranked state for presidents.  Seven presidents were born in Ohio: Ulysses S Grant (18), Rutherford B Hayes (19), James Garfield (20), Benjamin Harrison (23), William McKinley (25), William Howard Taft (27), and Warren G Harding (29).  Of particular note, every president elected from 1868 to 1900 was from Ohio, with the sole exception being Cleveland.

New York rounds out the top three for presidential birth states: Martin Van Buren (8), Millard Filmore (13), Theodore Roosevelt (26), Franklin Delano Roosevelt (32), and Donald Trump (45).  Each of these men made it there so they could make it anywhere.

Massachusetts is fourth with four: John Adams (2), John Quincy Adams (6), John F Kennedy (35), and George HW Bush (41) were born in the Bay State.  It looks like John is the name to have if you want to be president from here.  Seeing the John pattern, George moved to Texas and started his political career there.

North Carolina produced three presidents.  Probably.  Andrew Jackson (7) was born somewhere along the border of North Carolina and South Carolina, so perhaps North Carolina should only get a half credit for him.  James Knox Polk (11) and Andrew Johnson (17) were born in North Carolina.  It is noteworthy that all three of these men rose to prominence in Tennessee, two of them serving as governors of the state.

There is a 3-way tie next: Pennsylvania, Vermont, and Texas

Pennsylvania is the birthplace of both James Buchanan (15) and Joseph Biden (46).  Buchanan began politicking in the state and served as a Representative and a Senator from Pennsylvania before becoming Secretary of State for Polk.  Joseph Biden was born in the state but his family relocated to Delaware when he was 10.  His political career has ever since been tied to the First State.

Vermont may have been the birthplace, but neither made a name for himself as Bernie Sanders has.  Chester Arthur (21) was born in Vermont but rose to prominence in New York.  Calvin "Silent Cal" Coolidge (30) was also born in Vermont, but his political career is all Massachusetts.

Texas has produced two presidents, and one is not who you might think.  Dwight Eisenhower (34) was born in Texas but his family moved to Kansas when he was 2 years old.  Eisenhower considered himself to be a Kansan, not a Texan.  Lyndon Johnson (36) was elected to the House of Representatives in 1936 and became a senator in 1949.  He was Texas through and through.

The remaining states all produced only one president each.

New Hampshire: Franklin Pierce (14)

Kentucky: Abraham Lincoln (16) was born here but his family moved to Indiana while he was a boy.  He moved to the Land of Lincoln as an adult.

New Jersey: Grover Cleveland (22 & 24) was 13 when the family moved to New York, where he eventually entered politics.

Iowa: Herbert Hoover (31) was a mining engineer who earned several appointive offices during World War I and its aftermath.  His first elective office was the presidency.

Missouri: Harry Truman (33) is just the kind of man who would come from the Show Me State.

California: Richard Nixon (37)

Nebraska: Gerald Ford (38) was born in Omaha but relocated to Grand Rapids, Michigan, as an infant.

Georgia: Jimmy Carter (39)

Illinois: Ronald Reagan (40) grew up in Illinois before moving to Iowa to do radio.  While on the road in California, he got an acting contract.  From Bedtime for Bonzo to California Governor and then the White House.

Arkansas: Bill Clinton (42)

Connecticut: George W Bush (43) moved to Texas as a boy, but was educated in New England.  After Yale and Harvard, he returned to Texas and eventually politics.

Hawaii: Barack Obama (44) was born in Hawaii?  Well, that's what the birth certificate shows.  :)

Just 20 states have produced the 45 presidents.  Of course, many of these had little to do with their state of birth, building careers elsewhere.  Both Lincoln and Obama should be counted for Illinois, the Bushes for Texas, Reagan for California, and so on.  I may just do that in another blog.

Sanctuary Counties

In Virginia, 91 of the 96 counties have declared themselves to be 2nd Amendment sanctuaries.  How is it that the state passed a law that the overwhelming majority of counties oppose?  This is a case of urban centers attempting to enforce their preferences in rural areas.  The urban centers are far more populous than the rural areas and can swamp them with votes.  However, a law that may be appropriate for a densely populated city might be unworkable for a low density area.

It is funny that the party that celebrates sanctuary cities, counties, and states when the issue is illegal immigration is outraged when the same tactic is used for gun rights.  Why is it okay - even commendable - for California and Colorado to ignore Federal law as regards marijuana but it is wrong when that same tactic is used by 'the other side' to protect gun rights?  Either we live by the laws that are passed or we have localities nullify laws they don't like.  Pick one and be consistent.

As a fan of federalism, my preference is for localities to govern themselves.  Cities should not be allowed to strong arm rural areas because they have more votes in the legislature.  This is resolved at the federal level with the bicameral legislature but is meaningless at the state level thanks to a Reynolds v. Sims, which negated the point of bicameralism.

Political Tidal Wave?

With yesterday's victories in New Jersey and Virginia, there are claims that the political tide has shifted and now Democrats will start retaking power.  That was surely the case when Republican Bob McDonald won the gubernatorial race in 2009 in the wake of President Obama's 2008 victory.  Same thing, different parties.  Right?  Not entirely.

Donald Trump lost Virginia in the 2016 election, receiving 44% of the votes.  Ed Gillespie did slightly better than Trump, gaining 45% of the votes.  Virginia voted Democratic last year and it voted Democratic this year.  It went from one Democratic governor to another, which should not be taken as a sign of big political shift.

Let's consider when Bob McDonnell beat Creigh Deeds in 2009.  Barack Obama had won Virginia in 2008 by a 52 to 46 margin over John McCain.  The governor was Tim Kaine, Hillary's future VP nominee.  Despite having voted by 6 points for the Democrat in 2008, the state elected the Republican by an 18 point margin, 59 to 41.  That is a massive shift.  Gillespie actually picked up slightly more support than Trump had (45 Gillepsie vs 44 Trump) while Deeds lost a huge swath of Obama voters (41 Deeds vs 52 Obama).  Yesterday's election was a status quo, not an earthquake like 2009.

Donald Trump lost New Jersey, receiving 41% of the votes.  Kim Guadagno won 42% of the votes in her failed run for governor.  Therefore, she too did slightly better than Trump himself.  However, this election switched the governor from Republican to Democrat, which makes it more significant than Virginia.  Hillary won New Jersey 55 to 41.  Phil Murphy won New Jersey 56 to 42.  Hardly a sea change.

 

Again, let's go back to 2009 race.  Obama trounced McCain, 57 to 42.  The following year, Republican Chris Christie beat the incumbent, Democrat Jon Corzine, 49 to 45.  Corzine lost 12 points from Obama's support.  That's a tidal wave.

 

In 2009, the Virginia and New Jersey races were dire warnings to the Democrats that they mostly ignored.  In 2017, these represent little to no change from 2016.

 

These numbers are actually cause for concern regarding Democrat chances next year.  If results just match the presidential election - as these two do - then the Republicans are going to get a much bigger majority in the Senate and hold the House.  Therefore, it is important for the Democrats to frame this status quo election as a momentum shift while the victory is fresh in the votes' minds.