Thursday, April 5, 2012

Romney is the Nominee

It is painfully obvious to all that, barring some titanic gaffe, Romney is going to be the nominee. Even a titanic gaffe could do no worse than result in an open convention that would probably still select Romney. That said, it is time for Santorum to drop out. He cannot win the nomination and it is extremely unlikely he can deny the nomination to Romney by collecting enough delegates. At this point, Santorum can only diminish himself, which he has already started to do. He's managed to rehabilitate himself from his disastrous loss in 2006 and should quit rather than risk a loss in Pennsylvania again. He is positioned to be the frontrunner in 2016 much as Romney's successes in 2008 made him the current frontrunner.

Newt was out weeks ago but has refused to recognize it. However, he has no illusions that he might get another chance so he doesn't have the same calculus as Santorum. His political career is at an end so when he suspends his campaign that will be it. What bargaining power he had to suspend his campaign is gone so he can't even benefit from bowing out. But it was fun while it lasted.

Ron Paul is going to the convention. Though he has the fewest delegates, he has some of the staunchest supporters and, unlike Santorum or Gingrich, he could take them with him on a Quixotic third party run. Romney will have to show Paul some deference. Yes, despite his consistent 4th place showing, he has serious pull. Agian, I love Paul's domestic policies but think his foreign policies are naive.

I've mostly reconciled myself to Romney. If necessary, he will make the effort to repeal Obamacare - though he will fail unless the Republicans get a 60 seat majority in the Senate. I'm certain he will reduce the deficit; he has been a proponent of Paul Ryan's budget. He is far from my ideal candidate but a vast improvement over what I've currently got.

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