Iran: When the elections in Iran appeared to have been stolen by Ahmedinejad and the people rose in protest in the Green Revolution, Obama was silent. Would US support have aided the rebellion? It is hard to know but considering our enmity with Iran, it was clearly a missed opportunity. His engagement plan has demonstrably failed but he and his administration keep getting behind a podium and demanding that Iran 'live up to its international obligations' as if that will have an impact. If Iran gets a bomb, they are unlikely to be contained by Mutually Assured Destruction as the USSR was.
Russian Reset: In an effort to win Russian support, Obama canceled planned missile defense stations in both Poland and the Czech Republic. In the wake of this betrayal of allies, the Russians repaid by blocking sanctions against Iran and arming Bashar al-Assad the Syrian dictator. Russia may no longer be an enemy but it is certainly a rival and should be treated as such.
Iraq: Obama claims success for the withdrawal that had been planned under the Bush Administration. There had been an expectation of a continuing US presence, much like we maintained in Germany and Japan after WWII. Instead, we had a complete withdrawal and Iraq is sliding. It is likely that Iran is supplying arms to Syria through Iraq. Iraq has seen a rise in violence since out departure and we have little ability to influence the course of events.
Arab Spring: Obama initially equivocated on the spread of uprisings, much as he had with the Green Revolution two years earlier. Then he embraced the idea of toppling dictators, even though they were allied to us. The most notable is Mubarak of Egypt, a longtime ally to the US. The fall of Mubarak has brought the Muslim Brotherhood to power. Egypt is on the path to be another Iran, where we let the Shah fall and got something vastly worse, both for us and for the people of Iran (watch Persepolis for a view from Marjane Satrapi, an Iranian woman who lived through it).
Libya: Gaddafi had been defanged in the wake of Saddam's capture in Iraq and was no longer a threat to the United States. Whereas Obama allowed the Arab Spring to work its havoc without much US intervention, here he decided to take part. Again, as with Mubarak, we have traded the bad for the worse. The weak government cannot contain the al Qaeda-allied groups that killed our ambassador in Benghazi. The argument in favor of this action was to prevent a massacre; that same argument could apply - with far more evidence - to the situation is Syria. So, the intervention wasn't based on a coherent policy.
Afghanistan: It is obvious that our war is disintegrating. It is becoming more difficult to trust our 'allies' among the Afghani and we are drawing down our forces for a withdrawal. The Taliban need merely wait for our exit to once again take control and, shortly thereafter, resume support for al Qaeda or its clones. It is hard to give Obama much grief for this failure since he was following the doomed policy of Bush.
Israel: Obama has repeatedly chastised our strongest ally in the Middle East as it tries to survive in an increasingly dangerous region. The administration, which glorifies the peace process, has bungled it by demanding that Israel stop building houses in Israel. The Palestinians were only too happy to adopt that position, stalling the peace talks. Obama's dislike of Netanyahu is no secret.
Economy and Debt: Interestingly enough, the greatest damage to US foreign policy may be the state of our economy and exploding debt. Great powers inevitably cut the military when debt service rises. We are following the path of Great Britain but will not have a congenial cousin to take the reins as they did. Pax Americana is heading for the rocks and President Obama isn't changing course. In fact, he is promising a tax increase in a weakening economy.
Osama bin Laden: Here is the great success of the Obama Administration. It is more of a public relations success than a strategic success. OBL had incarcerated himself to avoid US reprisal and had kept his outside contact to a minimum. Thus, he was essentially outside the chain of command. He hadn't directed al Qaeda in years and had had little influence. Killing OBL for us was similar to al Qaeda killing former President George W. Bush. His death was a blow to morale among al Qaeda but not its command and control.
Obama's foreign policy is the repeated projection of weakness. Even when he seems to show strength (say Libya), he avoids full engagement and suffers the accusation of Leading from Behind. Or there is Afghanistan where he pressed for a surge but planned the withdrawal on a timeline not an objective. Wars end when you win or lose, not when a date is reached on the calendar. His foreign policy appeases enemies and slights allies. The US is less respected now than it was under George W Bush.
No comments:
Post a Comment