Friday, October 16, 2015

Sanders vs. Carson?

Politico has an interesting graphic that shows how much each candidate has raised and, more interesting, what percentage was from low dollar donations (under $200); that would be voters rather than big dollar donors.  Based purely on dollars generated, Hillary is the big winner:

Candidate  Millions of  $
Clinton 29.9
Sanders 26.2
Carson 20.8
Bush 13.4
Cruz 12.2
Walker 7.4
Fiorina 6.8
Rubio 5.8
Kasich 4.4
Christie 4.2

Only the top 10 are listed but Clinton is the big winner with Sanders very close and Carson as the dominant Republican.  Keep in mind that the Republican field is much larger and the money is spread among more candidates.  Though the Democrats look to be the big money draws, the entire field only collected $58.1 million while the Republican field collected $85.3 million.  But here is where it gets interesting.  When considering the source of that money, it is revealing to see how much enthusiasm is coming from the voters vs. the big donors:
 
Candidate % Small Donation
Sanders 77%
Trump 71%
Carson 60%
Huckabee 59%
Paul 51%
Fiorina 48%
Cruz 43%
Webb 42%
Walker 36%
Rubio 21%
 
Again, only the top 10 are listed but Sanders is clearly supported by the base.  Only 17% of Hillary's money came from small donations.  And she smashes JEB, who only saw 7% of his from small donations.  These under $200 donations are from Ma & Pa Kettle, the average voter.  One more graphic to show dollars from small donors:
  
Candidate Millions of $
Sanders 20.2
Carson 12.5
Cruz 5.2
Clinton 5.1
Fiorina 3.3
Trump 2.8
Walker 2.7
Paul 1.3
Rubio 1.2
Bush 0.9
 
Sanders has raised four times what Hillary has from the base voter while Carson has collected more than double his nearest competitor.  Trump is a special case since he has not sought, and does not need, donations and has them anyway; he has utterly trounced JEB in small donations, who does have a fundraising machine.
 
Obviously, the election is more than a year away and the first votes aren't cast until February.  However, it is clear which candidates are generating enthusiasm from the voters and which are not.  If the current pattern holds (which it won't), we might be looking at Sanders vs. Carson.  I can hardly wait to accuse every Democrat I meet of being a racist for opposing a black man.
 

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