Thursday, January 17, 2019

Tit for Tat

In answer to Speaker Pelosi canceling President Trump's State of the Union address, Trump has canceled Pelosi's world tour, unless she wants to fly commercial.  Two can play this game, Madam Speaker.  I love this shutdown.  May it go on for years.  That absence of government - at least that part that is furloughed - has had no impact on my life so far, beyond the entertainment value.  The longer the shutdown goes, the more likely people will realize that we are paying $100K salaries to perform unnecessary jobs.  If the shutdown lasts 30 days, various departments can move for a Reduction in Force.  We've done without you for a month so we're just going to eliminate your position.  Oh, that would be SO great.  That's one way to drain the swamp.  Most of these people vote Democrat anyway (Hillary won over 90% of the vote in DC) so it's not as if Trump or the Republicans are punishing their voters.  That's leverage that Trump will have on his side in a week.  Of course, Trump is in high-stakes territory.  Loss on the shutdown could sour his base of support.  Failing to get concessions from the Democrats now will mean he never gets concessions.
 
Uncontrolled immigration has successfully turned California from a reliably red state into a reliably blue state.  Texas and Arizona are trending toward blue.  Continuing this policy of unenforced borders benefits the Democrats.  Of course, it also benefits Republican donors who like the cheap labor.  No wonder everyone hates Trump.
 
Much of this current fight can be related to some of Trump's Elements of the Deal as detailed in The Art of the Deal.  Here are a few I see in practice.
 
1. Use Your Leverage: The shutdown makes Trump a bottleneck for spending.  Until the Congress can muster the votes to override a veto, he is in the driver seat.  He was able to cancel Pelosi's trip and he may soon get to reduce the federal workforce.
 
2. Get the Word Out: Trump is nothing if not a self-promoter.  No previous Republican president has ever pushed his case in a shutdown as hard at Trump has.  In fact, they just cave and lose.
 
3. Fight Back: Where George H. W. Bush served as a punching bag during a shutdown during his administration, Trump is fighting back.  He doesn't have the decorum bone in his body, making it hard to shame him into surrender.
 
4. Deliver the Goods: You can self-promote and blather for only so long before people realize you haven't done anything for them.  If Trump doesn't build the wall or some convincing facsimile thereof, he's toast.  He knows this.
 
5. Contain the Costs: Trump has requested $5.7 billion for the wall.  The federal budget is over $4 trillion.  The US spends $6 billion a year subsidizing the sugar industry, which is why American's pay more for sugar than the world market rate.  California's bullet train is going to cost almost $80 billion!  The wall is a bargain.
 
6. Have Fun: Whatever you think of Trump, it is pretty clear he is having fun.
 
Long live the shutdown!

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