Tit for Tat

In answer to Speaker Pelosi canceling President Trump's State of the Union address, Trump has canceled Pelosi's world tour, unless she wants to fly commercial.  Two can play this game, Madam Speaker.  I love this shutdown.  May it go on for years.  That absence of government - at least that part that is furloughed - has had no impact on my life so far, beyond the entertainment value.  The longer the shutdown goes, the more likely people will realize that we are paying $100K salaries to perform unnecessary jobs.  If the shutdown lasts 30 days, various departments can move for a Reduction in Force.  We've done without you for a month so we're just going to eliminate your position.  Oh, that would be SO great.  That's one way to drain the swamp.  Most of these people vote Democrat anyway (Hillary won over 90% of the vote in DC) so it's not as if Trump or the Republicans are punishing their voters.  That's leverage that Trump will have on his side in a week.  Of course, Trump is in high-stakes territory.  Loss on the shutdown could sour his base of support.  Failing to get concessions from the Democrats now will mean he never gets concessions.

 

Uncontrolled immigration has successfully turned California from a reliably red state into a reliably blue state.  Texas and Arizona are trending toward blue.  Continuing this policy of unenforced borders benefits the Democrats.  Of course, it also benefits Republican donors who like the cheap labor.  No wonder everyone hates Trump.

 

Much of this current fight can be related to some of Trump's Elements of the Deal as detailed in The Art of the Deal.  Here are a few I see in practice.

 

1. Use Your Leverage: The shutdown makes Trump a bottleneck for spending.  Until the Congress can muster the votes to override a veto, he is in the driver seat.  He was able to cancel Pelosi's trip and he may soon get to reduce the federal workforce.

 

2. Get the Word Out: Trump is nothing if not a self-promoter.  No previous Republican president has ever pushed his case in a shutdown as hard at Trump has.  In fact, they just cave and lose.

 

3. Fight Back: Where George H. W. Bush served as a punching bag during a shutdown during his administration, Trump is fighting back.  He doesn't have the decorum bone in his body, making it hard to shame him into surrender.

 

4. Deliver the Goods: You can self-promote and blather for only so long before people realize you haven't done anything for them.  If Trump doesn't build the wall or some convincing facsimile thereof, he's toast.  He knows this.

 

5. Contain the Costs: Trump has requested $5.7 billion for the wall.  The federal budget is over $4 trillion.  The US spends $6 billion a year subsidizing the sugar industry, which is why American's pay more for sugar than the world market rate.  California's bullet train is going to cost almost $80 billion!  The wall is a bargain.

 

6. Have Fun: Whatever you think of Trump, it is pretty clear he is having fun.

 

Long live the shutdown!

The Art of the Deal

In 1987, Donald Trump's book, The Art of the Deal, was published.  Thirty years later, I decided it was time to read it.  Mostly, it is Trump expounding on his various high profile deals.  There are chapters on the Grand Hotel, Trump Tower, Atlantic City casinos, his involvement in the USFL, and the story of Wollman Ice Rink in Central Park.  It is surprisingly readable and offers excellent insight into Trump's way of thinking.

In chapter 2, Trump outlines The Elements of the Deal:

Think Big: "If you're going to be thinking anyway, you might as well think big."  He offers the view that most people think small and thus leave a lot of room for big thinkers to dominate.  No one would accuse Trump of not thinking big.

Protect the Downside and the Upside Will Take Care of Itself: "If you plan for the worst - if you can live with the worst - the good will always take care of itself."  Make sure the worst that can happen will be doable, then anything above that is all good.

Maximize Your Options: "I always keep a lot of balls in the air, because most deals fall out, no mater how promising they seem at first."  He proposes having a variety of pathways to success.  Many of the deals he details would still have been profitable even if he had to just sell the land or rights to someone else.

Know Your Market: "Some people have a sense of the market and some people don't."  Trump proposes this is an instinct and some just happen to have it.  He's not a fan of number crunchers and focus groups.  He holds critics in low regards as they would likely be failures trying to produce the thing they review (e.g. film critics would likely make lousy films).

Use Your Leverage: "The worse thing you can possibly do in a deal is seem desperate to make it.  That makes the other guy smell blood, and then you're dead."  It is always good to have something that the person on the other side of the table wants, or needs.  If you don't have that, spin a story that makes it seem you do.  Salesmanship and imagination are key.

 

Enhance Your Location: "Just as you can create leverage, you can enhance a location, through promotion and psychology."  Trump loves the superlative (I find superlatives to be synonymous with hyperbole with the possible exception of gold medal winning athletes and the like and generally avoid using them.  Trump does not share my views on that) and is constantly saying how this person is the best, that deal was the worst, or this is the greatest.  Such liberal use of extremes has an impact.

 

Get the Word Out: "You can have the most wonderful product in the world, but if people don't know about it, it's not going to be worth much."  Here Trump notes that the press is always eager for a good story and sensational ones are better.  He notes that even a critical story that could be personally hurtful can nonetheless be good for business.  He argues to be straight with the press but always frame things in the best possible light, which sounds like a contradiction.  Never be defensive.

 

Fight Back: "But when people treat me badly or unfairly or try to take advantage of me, my general attitude, all my life, has been to fight back very hard."  In this, Trump is very different from typical Republicans.  Where George W. Bush ignored every attack or criticism against him, Trump lets none escape his ire, even when it makes the situation worse to do so.  This is probably one of the greatest selling points for Trump since he entered politics.  The Republican base is used to candidates who shrug indifferently when attacked whereas Trump breaks out the dueling pistols.  Fighting is a novelty among Republicans.

 

Deliver the Goods: "You can create excitement, you can do wonderful promotions and get all kinds of press, and you can throw in a little hyperbole.  But if you don't deliver the goods, people will eventually catch on."  This very point is what killed the rest of the Republican field in the primaries.  Republicans made big promises over the last 8 years and never delivered the goods.  The people caught on and decided to try something different.  Of course, Trump promised tax cuts and Obamacare repeal and hasn't yet delivered the goods.  Hmm.

 

Contain the Costs: "I believe in spending what you have to.  But I also believe in not spending more than you should."  Trump offers a story in which he reduced the number of door hinges by 1 per door.  Considering how many doors were in the building, it saved $20 thousand.

 

Have Fun: "If you ask me exactly what the deals I'm about to describe all add up to in the end, I'm not sure I have a very good answer.  Except that I've had a very good time making them."

Each of these elements regularly appear in the rest of the book.  I found it particularly humorous how every plot of land he had was the best plot of land imaginable.  When in competition with another developer, he offered vast praise for his plan and crapped all over his competitor's plan.  So many aspects of last year's campaigns were explained in the book.  Trump's hyperbole and habit of demeaning his opponents shows up repeatedly in the book.  The end results speak volumes.

It is an easy read and often very entertaining.  Trump's repeatedly overcoming the bureaucracy of New York City made me laugh.  Definitely worth reading to gain insight on President Trump's way of doing things.  Every member of Congress should read this book, whether an ally or an opponent of the president.