The Law of Averages is a weak law when applied to small numbers but becomes more reliable as the sample grows. For instance, if 100 people flip a quarter 10 times each, you can expect about 500 heads and 500 tails. However, if Bill flipped 10 consecutive heads while Stacy flipped 10 tails, that would not be surprising. The more coin flips, the closer to 50-50 it should be.
In Michigan, Joe Biden had his strongest showing in Washtenaw County. He crushed Trump, winning 72% of the vote compared to Trump's 26%. His next best showing was Wayne County. Biden won 68% of the votes to Trump's 30%. As these are some of the most populous regions of the state, that explains how Biden could win despite only carrying 11 of Michigan's 83 counties. But this leads to a question of those early morning batches:
3:50 AM, 59,215 votes were processed that were 92% for Biden. Huh. This is a vastly better showing than Biden had in his two strongest counties. As noted in an earlier post, he stomped Trump with mail-in ballots by a 2 to 1 margin but this is 12 to 1. Of course, there were 5.5 million votes cast so this is only 1% of the total. This is like the example where Bill flipped 10 consecutive heads. Just happened to lean very Biden.
6:31 AM, 185,069 votes were processed that were 95.9% for Biden. Huh. That's over 3% of all the votes cast in the state and it is even more lopsided. As a whole, the state went to Biden by 50.6% to Trump's 47.8%. The bigger the sample of ballots, the more it should tend toward that ratio. If Biden had won these two batches by 63% to 37% - still stomping Trump, Trump wins Michigan.
Food for thought.
No comments:
Post a Comment