A week ago, if asked to pick the country least likely to suffer a large-scale surprise attack, I would have chosen Israel. I would have been wrong. Considering the extent of the attack, it is almost inconceivable that Israel didn't see it coming. Much as many believe that FDR knew Pearl Harbor was coming and that George W. Bush knew 9/11 was coming, I expect that many will believe that Netanyahu knew this was coming. This provides an excellent pretext for reoccupying Gaza and a huge distraction from his domestic troubles.
If Netanyahu didn't know, this was a catastrophic failure Israeli Intelligence. Such a large-scale operation cannot be easily arranged without leaks. Many Palestinian fighters were armed with American weapons, the very ones left in Afghanistan after the withdrawal. Thousands of rockets were smuggled into Gaza. The attacks were launched by land, air, and sea. How did this get missed?
Of course, the Israelis will push the Hamas fighters back and retake all the territory that has been seized. Moreover, seeing the danger, the IDF is likely to flatten large parts of Gaza. Hamas must be crushed, removed from any leadership role. Much as Germany had de-Nazification after WWII and Iraq had de-Baathification after the Iraq War, Gaza needs a de-Hamasification. Will that help? Probably not. But whatever replaces Hamas will require years to become as organized.
Another surprising thing about this attack was that Israelis were not armed. For years, the news has reported how Israelis wander the streets with automatic weapons. For years, whenever I saw a report on the news (usually ABC back in the day), there were also pictures of random citizens with an Uzi or some other weapon casually slung from a shoulder. However, many videos show Hamas fighters stalking down residential streets unopposed. Did Israel impose gun control? If not, gun sales are going to go through the roof after this.
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