October 7th

It has been two years since the attack that started the current war between Israel and Hamas.  Except for that first assault by Hamas, it has been a one-sided war.  Hamas never stood a chance, and they knew it.  As usual, there have been constant calls for ceasefires and ending of the war.  That is not how wars end.  In World War II, the US required surrender from the Axis powers.  Germany didn't get to sue for peace after D-Day.  No, they had the choice of surrender or continued warfare.  The same was true with Japan.  Either surrender or the bombing will continue.  Hamas has refused to surrender.  Nor have the Palestinian people overthrown their bellicose leaders.  You do not get to start a war then cry timeout when it goes badly for you.  Ergo, the war continues.

Clearly, Hamas will not surrender, thus the war can only end when Hamas is no more.  Is that even possible?  It is quite a strategy that Hamas has and may yet succeed in letting them rebuild for the next attack on Israel.

Don't Trust the Media

The new story from Israel is the discovery of 40 dead babies, some of them beheaded.  If true, that is Nazi level of evil.  However, I remember when Iraqis supposedly tossed babies out of incubators during the invasion of Kuwait.  It was a big story.  The young woman who testified was quite convincing.  It wasn't true but it sure helped sway the American public for the Gulf War (1990-1991).  Though I have seen pictures of dead Israelis and even tourists in this conflict, I have not seen the beheaded babies.  Of course, I don't want to see beheaded babies, but the media has proved so unreliable that I don't believe it.  What Palestinian could be so stupid as to not realize how devastating such an action would be?

If this is not true, then Israel is perpetrating one of the darkest public relations operations ever.  As if what has been done was not bad enough, we'll stack on 40 dead babies.  That will get the public on our side.  That is a vile way to win support.  Not as terrible as what Hamas has done, but still vile.

Again, I don't want to see pictures but, until I do, this is a bogus story.

Failure of Intelligence

A week ago, if asked to pick the country least likely to suffer a large-scale surprise attack, I would have chosen Israel.  I would have been wrong.  Considering the extent of the attack, it is almost inconceivable that Israel didn't see it coming.  Much as many believe that FDR knew Pearl Harbor was coming and that George W. Bush knew 9/11 was coming, I expect that many will believe that Netanyahu knew this was coming.  This provides an excellent pretext for reoccupying Gaza and a huge distraction from his domestic troubles.

If Netanyahu didn't know, this was a catastrophic failure Israeli Intelligence.  Such a large-scale operation cannot be easily arranged without leaks.  Many Palestinian fighters were armed with American weapons, the very ones left in Afghanistan after the withdrawal.  Thousands of rockets were smuggled into Gaza.  The attacks were launched by land, air, and sea.  How did this get missed?

Of course, the Israelis will push the Hamas fighters back and retake all the territory that has been seized.  Moreover, seeing the danger, the IDF is likely to flatten large parts of Gaza.  Hamas must be crushed, removed from any leadership role.  Much as Germany had de-Nazification after WWII and Iraq had de-Baathification after the Iraq War, Gaza needs a de-Hamasification.  Will that help? Probably not.  But whatever replaces Hamas will require years to become as organized.

Another surprising thing about this attack was that Israelis were not armed.  For years, the news has reported how Israelis wander the streets with automatic weapons.  For years, whenever I saw a report on the news (usually ABC back in the day), there were also pictures of random citizens with an Uzi or some other weapon casually slung from a shoulder.  However, many videos show Hamas fighters stalking down residential streets unopposed.  Did Israel impose gun control?  If not, gun sales are going to go through the roof after this.