When the vice president becomes president, by whatever means, how does that tend to work? Let's take a look.
First, let's consider those elected to the presidency on their merits:
1. John Adams served as the first vice president. When George Washington declined to run for a 3rd term, Adams was elected. His was a tumultuous presidency and not popular. He served only one term.
2. Thomas Jefferson served as the second vice president. Though Adams and Jefferson were on opposite sides of the political aisle of the day, the way the system worked gave the presidency to the man who received the most electoral votes and the vice presidency to the man who received the 2nd most electoral votes. This was changed for the 1800 election so that Jefferson and Burr ran as the Democratic-Republicans against Adams & Pinkney for the Federalists. Jefferson proved to be far more popular and successful than the president for whom he was VP. He served for two terms and is considered one of the great presidents.
3. Martin Van Buren was Andrew Jackson's second VP. He was elected in 1836 and was then beset by a financial panic the following year. He only served one term.
4. Richard Nixon served as Eisenhower's VP and ran for the presidency in 1960. He lost. However, he ran again in 1968 and won. Though he was reelected, his second term proved to be a national disaster thanks to Watergate.
5. George Bush was Ronald Reagan's VP for two terms. In 1988, he ran as the 3rd Reagan term and won in a landslide. In the wake of the Gulf War, he was so popular that most of the 'formidable' Democrats declined to run. However, an economic downturn led him to have only the one term.
6. Joseph Biden was Barack Obama's VP for 2 terms. Unlike most vice presidents, he did not seek election immediately after his stint as VP. He was elected in 2020 and it is yet to be determined if he will complete a second term like Jefferson or be relegated to one-term status like most of the rest.
Next, there are those who took over in the wake of the president's death through illness.
1. John Tyler spent only a month as the VP before William Henry Harrison died of pneumonia. Most of the papers referred to Tyler as Acting-President. This was the first time the VP assumed the office of president and the exact workings were not settled. Tyler established the ascension of the VP to President, not Acting-President. He was not a popular president and did not win nomination for re-election.
2. Millard Filmore became president when Taylor died of cholera in 1850. Having no mandate other than filling out Taylor's term, Filmore was bypassed in favor of Winfield Scott for the Whig Party. In 1856, he ran as the Know Nothing nominee; he won 8 electoral votes.
3. Calvin Coolidge stepped in when Warren Harding died. It was the Roaring Twenties and the country was humming. Coolidge benefitted from the prosperity. He was elected to a term of his own, serving from 1925 to 1929. Coolidge declined to run for another term, thinking it would be too much for a man to serve 10 years as president.
4. Harry Truman had only been VP for a few months when FDR died. He took the helm in the waning days of World War II and dropped the bomb. He was nominated to continue as president in 1948 and - despite headlines to the contrary - defeated Dewey. He had a successful presidency and is viewed quite favorably by historians.
Finally, there are the VPs who took office in the wake of a presidential assassination.
1. Andrew Johnson was Abraham Lincoln's second VP and had only served a month when Lincoln was assassinated. He had a contentious relationship with the Radical Republicans and eventually found himself being impeached, something not to be repeated until Bill Clinton and Donald Trump. Unsurprisingly, he did not have a term of his own.
2. Chester Arthur took office when James Garfield died. He had lingered for a couple of months after his shooting. Arthur was a machine politician who benefitted from the Spoils System and yet became the champion for reform when he was in office. Though he might have secured a term of his own, Arthur was in poor health and didn't have strong support from the party. He left office in 1885 and died the following year.
3. Theodore Roosevelt was McKinley's second VP, the first having died in office. Like Garfield, McKinley lingered and even appeared to be recovering from the assassin's bullet. Roosevelt took office and proved to be an active executive. He easily secured a term of his own and even had enough popularity at the end of that term to select his successor.
4. Lyndon Baines Johnson became president when JFK was assassinated in Dallas. In one of the most lopsided elections, he trounced Barry Goldwater in 1964 and won a term of his own. However, the Vietnam War crushed his popularity. He declined to run for a second term and his party lost the 1968 election.
Of the VPs elected on their merits, only Thomas Jefferson can be called a success. President Biden will have to wait until next year to see if he joins Jefferson. Of those to take over after a death, both Coolidge and Truman made the office their own and won re-election for themselves. Of those who took over after an assassination, only Theodore Roosevelt fully succeeded. LBJ was burdened with an unpopular war and a tumultuous era.
Generally, VPs do not provide strong presidential material. Of course, that is true of most presidents as well.
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