9/11 + 18

18 years after the war began, Trump appears to be looking for an out that doesn't include winning.  If we've spent 18 years fighting and haven't won, then maybe we should just quit.  Throw in the towel.  Have a meeting with the Taliban and threaten them with furious retaliation if they start hosting al Qaeda again.  Oh, that'll work just great.

 

Like his predecessors, Trump is unwilling to identify the enemy.  If you can't say what you are fighting, you can't win.  We've been fighting symptoms - Islamic terrorists - for years but haven't even thought to address the disease: Islam.  Islam is not a religion of peace.  Read a biography of Muhammad and there is no way you can view him as a peacemaker.  He was a warlord and conqueror.  The religion he founded calls for the subjugation of all non-Muslims and views martyrdom - death in the cause of Islam - as the most praiseworthy thing a Muslim can do.  Is it any wonder so many are willing to blow themselves up or fly planes into buildings?  This isn't some crazy misinterpretation.  This is the religion.

 

The only way to win is to wipe out Islam.  That is an impossibility in the world today.  The West cannot do that.  In fact, the West is happily allowing Islam to migrate and takeover.  Charles Martel stopped the invasion of the Muslims into France but modern French leaders are inviting them in and paying welfare to have them.  This will not end well.

 

I said Trump's new plan wouldn't work and it hasn't.  Like his predecessors, he will not do what it would take to win.  The argument used to be that we fight over there so they don't show up here.  Well, they are showing up here because we've rolled out the red carpet to show how tolerant we are.  Fighting there just creates pressure for them to migrate to the West (see Syria).

 

"There is no substitute for victory."  Douglas MacArthur

 

Is it time to admit that we lost?  Is it time to cut and run?  So it seems.  But maybe we can spin it to look like a win.  Or at least a tie!

9/11 + 16 Years

In the wake of Pearl Harbor, the United States went to war with Imperialist Japan and Nazi Germany.  The Japanese utilized suicide bombers on planes, though they targeted American warships, not buildings.  We defeated them in 4 years.  The Nazis were vastly better at slaughtering Jews than the Islamic terrorists have thus far proven to be.  We defeated them in 4 years.  How is it that random bands of terrorists have proven more tenacious than two great powers from the 20th Century?

 

It is not the terrorists who are more formidable but the United States that is dramatically less formidable.  Japan had trended toward militarism, totalitarianism, and expansionism in the early 20th Century.  It had many similarities with the fascism of Italy and Germany, thus the natural alliance as the Axis Powers.  When the US defeated Japan, militarism was forcibly purged and a new constitution was imposed upon them.  The toxic ideas that had created Imperial Japan were ripped out by the victors.  This same process happened in Germany.  Nazis were rounded up and tried for war crimes.  The ideology that had justified the Holocaust was, to the best of our ability, eradicated.  The ideologies of the victorious powers were imprinted upon the losing powers.  Sadly, half of Europe suffered Communism as a result but no one was allowed to keep fascism in any of its forms.

 

Today, the ideology in question is Islam.  Islam is a fascist belief system.  Does it believe in totalitarianism?  Of course, the goal has been a global caliphate since the days of Mohammed.  Demand for violent action?  Yes, that global caliphate isn't going to form itself.  Are gender roles defined and enforced?  Can you say honor killing?  Yeah, we've got that.  Does it seek to purge decadence?  Clearly.  Believers frequently kill their own family members who have become decadent.  Hatred for Jews?  Absolutely.  However, unlike Italian Fascism, German Nazism, and Japanese Imperialism, Islam is a religion.

 

The 1st Amendment guarantees Freedom of Religion.  So long as Islam is given a pass as a religion, the ideology will just continue to produce more terrorists.  Does that mean we must bomb all Islamic countries?  No.  But we should have a version of Radio Free Europe to try to change the beliefs.  How many of these suicidal terrorists are doing it for the glory of Islam and the promise of 72 virgins in paradise?  That belief has to be countered.

9/11 +15

It is now fifteen years since the 9/11 attacks that triggered our recent flurry of Middle Eastern engagements and, if anything, we have lost ground.

After the 9/11 attacks, the country was on guard.  In the rest of the Bush Administration, 25 people were killed in Muslim attacks and 14 were injured.  During the Obama Administration, 114 people have been killed and 373 injured in Muslim attacks.  This only counts attacks on American soil.  The success rate of the enemy on our turf has gone up.  Homeland Security failure!  Worse off.

Afghanistan was the host of al Qaeda and the Taliban were toppled during the Afghan War.  Rebuilding efforts have been mostly for naught.  The continued presence of US troops makes the region less hospitable to al Qaeda and its ilk but a lasting victory is not established.  Better off.

The anti-American Saddam was toppled during the Iraq War and had become a relatively stable pro-American democracy thereafter.  However, US troops were completely withdrawn in 2011 and ISIS and Iran filled the power vacuum shortly thereafter.  The successes of ISIS have resulted in US re-engagement in the region.  Trade Saddam for ISIS?  In 2010, we had clearly been better off but as of now, we might be at status quo ante bellum.  Break even.

 

In 2011, Libya was involved in a Civil War and the United States opted for the non-Gaddafi side.  Libya has become a failed state and a breeding ground for terrorist groups, including a branch of al Qaeda.  The bill for this came due in Benghazi, 4 years ago today.  Worse off.

Egypt's stable, though repressive, pro-American regime was toppled and replaced by the Muslim Brotherhood.  This was in turn toppled and made way for a new stable, though repressive, not so pro-American regime.  Worse off.

Yemen's pro-American government has been toppled and Yemen is another failed state with both al Qaeda and ISIS affiliates.  Worse off.

 

The US became entangled in the Syrian civil war thanks to a red line.  The red line put US standing and reliability on the block.  Failure to do anything when the red line was crossed has hugely diminished US prestige in the world.  Russia, Iran, and Turkey have all moved into Syria and attacked the US-backed rebels.  Worse off.

 

Seeing the writing on the wall, Israel, America's staunchest ally in the region for decades, has recently had a high level meeting with Russia.  With American power waning, Israel needs to make arrangements should the decline continue.  Worse off.

 

Turkey has gone from a secular democracy to an Islamist state.  President Erdogan has viewed democracy as a tram that one takes until you reach your stop.  He reached his stop and gotten off.  Like Israel's Netanyahu, Erdogan has also made pilgrimage to Russia.  Though a member of NATO, Turkey is looking to improve bi-lateral relations with NATO's traditional enemy.  Worse off.

 

Iran was anti-American at the start and remains so.  The Iran Nuclear Deal, which has gifted hundreds of millions or billions of dollars to the Iranian regime, is a catastrophe that only gets worse.  Sanctions have been lifted and Iran is cheating on the deal, cozying up to Russia, and expanding its influence in the Middle East.  Much worse off.

 

As it stands, we are losing the war.  We may win skirmishes with various terror affiliates but such affiliates are popping up faster than we are stomping them.  Worse still, every candidate for the Presidency will continue to lose the war.  Trump, Johnson, and Stein would all wash their hands of the region (Trump talks about crushing ISIS but has little interest in the larger war).  Hillary helped formulate our current losing strategy and is likely to stay the course.  However, she is probably the most hawkish of the bunch and had disagreed with Obama on some policies where he proved more dovish.

 

Like the Cold War, we will eventually win this one.  However, it is going to take another 9/11-like attack against us (or a nuclear one against anyone) before we adopt the unconditional surrender posture that served us so well in WWII.

Gee, Too Bad that Iran Deal is Already Implemented

I cannot count the number of times I was told that Iraq had nothing to do with 9/11 and was therefore not a valid target in the aftermath.  Based on this newly released information, would those same people have been in favor of bombing Iran?  No, of course not.  That was just talking points.  Evidence is irrelevant if it might lead to bombing.  The more interesting thing is that we just inked a deal with Iran and the folks who signed on the dotted line knew that Iran was aware of the impending attack and even offered support for it.  Huh.  Well, its been almost 15 years.  Bygones!  Here's billions of dollars in frozen assets and removal of sanctions.  We'd appreciate it if you didn't do anything to embarrass the administration.  Start breaking the deal next February so the blame can be laid elsewhere.  Thanks.

Path to Defeat

Fourteen years after Pearl Harbor, World War II had been over for a decade.  The Germans (the western half of them) and the Japanese were no longer a threat.  Both were on a path to becoming powerful economies and much freer countries.

Fourteen years after 9/11, the War on Terror is still going though it is mostly a loss.  The costly victory of Iraq has been flushed away and now an Islamic State has arisen.  The United States has approved a treaty that isn't a treaty with Iran that will remove sanctions and free billions of dollars in assets to a leading state-sponsor of terrorism.  Does no one remember how well a far less generous nuclear deal with North Korea turned out?  Europe is being flooded with waves of Muslim refugees who, strangely enough, are 70% adult males.  Isn't it usually the women and children who flee while the men stay and fight?  Millions of 'refugees' will soon be scattered throughout Europe and a percentage of those will prove to be ISIS agents out to cause mayhem.  Heck, ISIS announced exactly that intention back in February.  Our Middle Eastern allies, such as they were, in Iraq, Yemen, and Egypt have toppled or are in crisis.  Libya, thanks to our intervention, went from a nominally stable dictatorship that was no longer a threat to a failed state crawling with Islamic fighters allied with al Qaeda.  In short, the situation is much worse than when the war began.  But Osama bin Laden is dead!  Our current strategy is an obvious loser.  It was weak under Bush and positively catastrophic under Obama.

 

During the Civil War, it took Lincoln years to find the right general.  On paper, Grant didn't look as good as many of the generals who had preceded him but he proved to be the right man for the time.  In the Cold War, it wasn't until Reagan that the right strategy was found against the Soviets.  Once implemented, the Evil Empire collapsed surprisingly quickly.  Obama may think the War on Terror has come to an end but the other side has not surrendered.  They are ascendant.  Will the next president be the right one to turn this war around?  Not if she's Hillary.  Hillary is one of the architects of the Libyan disaster.  I've not heard any nominee correctly identify our enemy.  Bush refused to do so and Obama had the Apology Tour during his first year in office.

 

Islam has been at war with the West for more than a thousand years.  During that period, it has had its high points and low points but it never lost sight of the goal: subjugation of the world under an Islamic Caliphate.  Thanks to the fecklessness of the West and a new strategy of stateless soldiers, Islam is making inroads.  Everything we have done since 9/11 has had no impact on the enemy's resolve.

 

I fear it will require a radioactive smoking crater in place of a US city for us to finally take the enemy at their word and fight to victory.