Calm Brought Us Here. Time for a New Approach

Keith Ellison, the deputy chair of the DNC, thinks that Kim Jong-un is acting more responsibly than President Trump.  The man providing frequent provocations by launching missiles toward Japan or the United States is responsible while the man telling him to knock it off or there will be serious consequences is irresponsible.  Ellison wants a president who brings calm.  The last president brought plenty of calm and we have a nuclear power with steadily improving missile technology.  North Korea is a basket case of a country that survives by extorting benefits in exchange for stopping its nuclear program.  It is amazing how few recall that President Clinton pursued the Agreed Framework that was supposed to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula.  How did that work?  Failed.  President George W. Bush included them in the Axis of Evil but mostly left them to stew while he sought to nation build in the Middle East.  President Obama spoke loudly and carried no stick at all.

"North Korea will not be accepted as a nuclear power." John Kerry, Secretary of State

What does that even mean?

We've had nothing but calm presidents and the situation has grown worse.  Twenty years ago, the Hermit Kingdom had no nukes.  Today, it has some that may be small enough to mount on an ICBM.  Kicking the can down the road has been a disaster.  It should be noted that President Obama had the equivalent of the Agreed Framework with Iran so we can expect this same situation to arise with the Iranians in 10 to 20 years.

 

An attack on the United States by North Korea will end the regime.  Kim may be a nut but he is aware of this.  His father and grandfather knew this too.  However, they have gamed a restart of the Korean War to extort their neighbors.  Sure, if the war were to restart, North Korea would end but isn't it cheaper to just pay them to calm down?  Trump appears to be not so keen on playing this game and is calling the bluff.  That's brinksmanship but it doesn't make Kim the more responsible person.

Credible Threat of Force

Diplomacy is toothless without the credible threat of force.  In the Korean Peninsula, the North Koreans have used a credible threat of force to milk concessions out of its neighbors and the United States for decades.  The provocations are plentiful: nuclear detonations, missiles fired into the Sea of Japan, capture of the USS Pueblo, shelling of South Korean islands, sinking South Korean ship, and so on.  Each of these were acts of war but no one really wanted to restart the Korean War.  It has long been easier to just pay the 'ransom' and kick that can down the road.

Trump has decided to try another tactic.  First, he has countered with a credible threat of force.  In the wake of his Syrian attack, his credibility on red lines is much stronger than his predecessor.  Moreover, Trump is using Taiwan as a means of pressuring China to in turn pressure North Korea.  Without Chinese support, North Korea would be in dire straits.  Secretary of State Tillerson has noted that nothing is off the table, including making Japan and South Korea nuclear powers.  The stakes have been raised.

 

By leaving the war card on the table, Trump has a better bargaining position than his multiple predecessors.  Yes, it is brinksmanship but the appeasement strategy has only made North Korea more dangerous.  Is the North Korean regime rational?  War is suicide.  However, Trump is unlikely to initiate a war but might jump at a provocation, like he did with the gas attack in Syria.

 

Amazingly, I am reminded of an episode of Star Trek: A Taste of Armageddon.  In the episode, the warring people of two planets had done away with most of the destructive and uncivilized aspects of war, making it fairly tolerable.  The only issue was that some citizens had to report to disintegration booths if they were selected as a casualty.  Kirk destroyed the computer that simulated the war and now real bombs would have to drop.  Real consequences are on the table and real negotiations may occur.

 

If Trump's efforts here follow the pattern of all previous presidents, North Korea will get some sort of pay off while offering empty and unenforceable promises to stop nuclear development and the can will be kicked further down the road.  However, that could be preferable to a regional war that may see a nuclear attack by a desperate North Korean regime.  Of course, use of a nuke assures the total annihilation of the North Korean regime.