Primaries Over

Though it is unclear as of this writing if Nikki Haley will end her campaign for president, it is clear that she has no traction.  Her home state of South Carolina, where she served as governor for 6 years, has chosen Donald Trump by a 60-40 margin in today's primary.  If you cannot carry your home state, what chance is there anywhere else?  Trump is 5-0 in the contests so far.

On the Democratic side, Joe Biden is 3-0 vs. the only remaining opponent, Dean Phillips.  As only two states have awarded delegates for the Democrats so far, I won't call this one over yet but Phillips better have a good showing in the next 2 outings or he's also done.

RFK Jr. withdrew from the Democratic nomination even before voting began and is now running an independent campaign.  Independent candidacies rarely achieve anything.  Without a party to do ground work, he'll needed to create his own party apparatus to get the vote out.  Unlikely to achieve even the impact of the Green Party or the Libertarian Party.

It does look like we are headed for a rematch from 2020.  Both candidates now have presidential records that can be compared.  Which one looks better?  Does it matter?  Of course, a lot can happen in the next 8 1/2 months.

The Star of the West

In November 1860, Abraham Lincoln became the first Republican elected to the Presidency.  The party had only been formed in 1854 on account of the Kansas-Nebraska Act, which repealed the Missouri Comprise and thus led to Bleeding Kansas as both anti-slavery and pro-slavery forces flooded into the state in order that 'Popular Sovereignty' would choose their side when statehood came.  Many in the South viewed the party as an abolitionist party and, as such, the election of Lincoln signaled that a corner had been turned on the fight over slavery.  His election was viewed as a hostile act.

On December 20, South Carolina seceded from the United States.

On December 26, Major Robert Anderson abandoned Fort Moultrie and transferred those troops and some guns to Fort Sumter.

On January 3, 1861, Delaware rejected a vote on secession.

On January 4, a civilian steamship, The Star of the West, was dispatched with supplies for Fort Sumter.  At the time of its departure, South Carolina remained the only state to secede.  Buchanan specifically chose a civilian ship in order to minimize tensions.

On January 9, The Star of the West was fired upon as it navigated into the harbor.  Neither the Star of the West nor Fort Sumter returned fire on the Morris Island battery.  The Star of the West suffered minor damage and retreated without delivering supplies.  In the wake of the incident, Major Anderson wrote to Governor Pickens, noting that South Carolina had not declared war on the United States before firing on a US ship.  This incident is often viewed as the first shooting in the Civil War though it did not trigger war.  Also on this day, Mississippi seceded from the Union.

On January 31, a letter from Governor Pickens of South Carolina arrived in Washington.  In it, he demanded that President Buchanan surrender Fort Sumter.  He refused.  However, by this time, Florida, Alabama, Georgia, and Louisiana had also seceded.

On March 4, Lincoln is inaugurated.  By this time, Texas had also seceded.  Seven states had seceded before the reason for their secession had even entered office.

On April 12, Confederate batteries commenced a 34 hour bombardment on Fort Sumter.  This is the widely accepted date for the start of the Civil War.

On April 13, the Union forces surrendered Fort Sumter.

Considering the timeline, who started the war?  It seems obvious to me.  A friend declares that the entry of the Star of the West into Charleston Harbor was the beginning of the War of Northern Aggression.  From this, I don't see it.

South Carolina and Nevada

Trump (32.4%) has another victory and all the Palmetto State delegates too.  Jeb! (7.9%) has finally admitted what has been obvious for months and suspended his campaign.  Where will his sliver of voters go now?  I doubt they will go to Trump, as Trump has been particularly abrasive toward Jeb.  It is pretty clear that it is a three way race with only Trump, Rubio (22.4%), and Cruz (22.3%) having enough support to reasonably stay in the race.  Kasich (7.6%) had over a hundred town hall meetings in New Hampshire to achieve a distant second; Santorum used the same strategy to win Iowa in 2012 but it gained him little traction thereafter.  Kasich and Carson (7.2%) will be the next two to suspend their campaigns, perhaps after Nevada but pretty certainly after Super Tuesday.  Trump will be best served if both Cruz and Rubio are still in the race after Super Tuesday so that the anti-Trump wing of the party can't coalesce around one of those two.  It is also possible that as the last 'establishment' candidate, Trump and Cruz will serve to split the anti-establishment vote and give Rubio his path to victory.  Interesting days ahead.

 

Meanwhile, Nevada chose Hillary (52.7%) over Bernie (47.2%), thus providing Hillary her first solid victory from the voters.  It could hardly be more appropriate that the land of gambling and prostitution chose Bill Clinton's wife rather than America's anti-capitalist scold.  Hillary is likely to win South Carolina as well.  Despite her apparent unpopularity, she has the Clinton network to manage her ground game.  Young voters prefer Bernie - much as they preferred Obama in 2008 - but turn out has been down among Democrats this year.  That's bad news for Bernie.  Low turnout tends to benefit the establishment.  Nevada participation was down by a third from 2008, showing the voters are less interested in the Clinton - Sanders race than they were in the Clinton - Obama race.

 

On the issue of turnout, the Republicans have had tremendous participation so far.  If the relative voter enthusiasm holds to the general election, this could be a Republican landslide.  As I said in an earlier post, the presidency almost always switches parties after a two term presidency.  Lacking a roaring economy only makes it more likely to flip.