There is talk that because Trump did not win Iowa that he is now toast. He failed the expectations game and his support will now desert him. I am doubtful. Unlike a primary, a caucus requires a much greater commitment. Stopping by your local polling station to pull a lever is a lot easier than attending a caucus. There are efforts by other participants to win you to their candidate while you try to woo them to yours. Since one is committing the evening to the event rather than just swinging by the polling station, a ground organization is far more important in Iowa. Had Iowa been a primary, Trump likely would have won. The big test will be how he does in the New Hampshire Primary. If he doesn't win this one, then his support may ebb.
Though Rubio looks to be on the rise, he has the huge issue of his Gang of Eight fiasco. In a year when an outsider like Trump was able to rocket to the top on the issue of immigration, it would be folly to nominate a Senator who attempted to foist amnesty on the voters. Immigration is the Republicans' trump card and Rubio cannot play it. This duplicates how Romney could not press Obama on Obamacare thanks to his passage of Romneycare in Massachusetts. I like Rubio but this is the wrong year for his run. He's young and has plenty of time to come back in later years, hopefully after atoning for his Amnesty foolishness.
Hillary is in big trouble. Her two tenths of one percent victory is really a tie. Bernie, who has been largely ignored by the media, somehow closed a double-digit gap thanks to a message that resonated with the base. The base loves the farthest left candidate and Hillary can't credibly go there thanks to her history. She voted for Bush's Iraq invasion, she lobbied Obama to stay in Iraq, for a greater commitment in Syria, and was the top cheerleader for the Libyan adventure. She is comparatively a hawk in a party dominated by doves. The party doesn't want Bernie - which is why he gets as little coverage as he does and why there are so few debates - and will probably enlist Biden or Warren if Hillary doesn't turn things around quickly.
Bernie is a true believer. Most Democrats deliver the same lines that Bernie does but, once safely in office, they sidle up to the fat cats on Wall Street and enjoy the sweet life. Bernie will attempt the socialist ideals he espouses, ruining that sweet life for all Washington elites. When no one thought he had a chance, he was treated as the crazy uncle. Now that he has gained traction, the long knives will come out.
Carson peaked too soon and is unlikely to recapture it. He is unlikely to break the top 5 in New Hampshire. He would have been more suited to the campaigning styles of earlier eras. The 24 hour news cycle rewards larger than life personalities while overlooking the quietly humble. The former is more entertaining but the latter is better suited to the presidency.
Kasich, Jeb, and Christie need a good showing to keep the money rolling. I doubt Christie is going much beyond New Hampshire as many are still annoyed with his embracing Obama only days before the 2012 election. Efforts were made to enlist him in 2012 but now he isn't wanted. He missed his window. Jeb wants to stay in the field and hope to benefit from the winnowing. Short of some serious disasters for the top tier candidates, I don't see a route for his recovery, and for that I am thankful.
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