Sunday, April 26, 2020

Different Approaches Valid

Ten states account for 42% of the US population but 73% of the Covid infections and 81% of the Covid deaths.  What is it about these states that it hit so much harder than the rest of the country?  If you look only at New York, the state has 6% of the US population but 30% of the infections and 41% of the deaths.  One out of every 68 New Yorkers has been infected and 1 out of 877 has died.  The situation is dire.  However, should the strategy to protect against a worsening of the pandemic in New York also be used in Nebraska?  In Nebraska, only 1 out of every 708 is infected and 1 in 36,500 has died.  What of Hawaii?  1 in 2,344 infected and 1 in 101,000 dead.  Our news media is based in New York and thus the situation there is driving the story.  There should be 50 different strategies, each customized to the situation in that state.

States  Cases   Deaths  Lethality  Population   % of Infections   % of Deaths 
NY         288,045       22,179 7.7% 19,453,561 30.0% 40.7%
NJ         109,038          5,938 5.4% 8,882,190 11.3% 10.9%
MA           54,938          2,899 5.3% 6,949,503 5.7% 5.3%
IL           43,903          1,933 4.4% 12,671,821 4.6% 3.5%
CA           42,934          1,694 3.9% 39,512,223 4.5% 3.1%
PA           41,165          1,669 4.1% 12,801,989 4.3% 3.1%
MI           37,778          3,315 8.8% 9,986,857 3.9% 6.1%
FL           31,528          1,073 3.4% 21,477,737 3.3% 2.0%
LA           26,773          1,729 6.5% 4,648,794 2.8% 3.2%
CT           25,269          1,924 7.6% 3,565,287 2.6% 3.5%

These are the numbers to date.  The Lethality is based only on those who have been tested as infected.  Recent studies indicate that the number of infections may be vastly larger than thought, dramatically reducing the lethality, likely below 1%.  Still, a lot of people are dead and this is a crisis in these states and extended lockdowns may be the needed remedy.  But Nebraska, Hawaii, and many other states are entirely justified in taking a different course.
  

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