Plot Twist

Last week, an entire homeless shelter was tested for Covid-19.  Of the 397 tested, 146 were positive.  Now for the plot twist: none of them had symptoms.  37% infection rate and only 1 needed treatment.  According to the official numbers, only 0.5% of Massachusetts residents have been infected and it has been lethal for 3.9% of those infected.  But this could turn that story on its head.  What if 10% have been infected but most showed no signs.  In Massachusetts, that would be 700,000 infections with 1,245 deaths.  That would drop the lethality rate to 0.2%, about twice as bad as the flu but is it national lockdown bad?  We are so focused on the size of the numerator without knowing the denominator.  We are in desperate need for randomized testing to determine the denominator.

As of April 16, 665,000 Americans have tested positive and 34,613 have died.  That's a 5% fatality rate.  What if 6 million have been infected?  That would make it fatal in less than 1% of cases.  That we don't know and that the homeless shelter numbers came as such a surprise is reason for concern.