Saturday, April 25, 2020

Flatten the Curve

Some states, notably Georgia, are reopening their economies.  Many are critical of this.  However, the whole point of the lockdown was to flatten the curve, not wait out the virus.  In many states, the hospital and ventilator capacity is far from full usage.  When the number of infected who need hospitalization exceed the capacity, the death rate goes way up.  For example, Italy and New York City.  There is a balance to be struck.  We have enough data to know that the death rate for those under 40 is extremely low.  The news has reported the teen in France who died and the 20 something in New York but these are the exceptions not the rule.  According to antibody testing, the vast majority - possibly 50 to 80 times the reported infected - of infected people didn't need any medical intervention.  Older people should stay in lockdown but younger people should get back to work.  The vast majority of them - 99.9% - who do contract the disease will be fine and contribute to the goal of herd immunity.

However, for those opposed, it is great that only some states are opening up.  This provides a perfect test case without threatening everyone.  If Georgia doesn't suffer a massive uptick in critical cases in 3 to 4 weeks time, then Governor Kemp will be vindicated.  If the states finds its hospital capacity pushed beyond the limit and deaths skyrocket, then his critics will have all that stronger a case.  Let federalism work and the people of Georgia can benefit or suffer for their elective choice.

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