Courting War

During the Korean War, American pilots found themselves in dogfights with Soviet MIGs piloted by Russian pilots.  Of course, we pretended that such was not the case, because if it was, that would mean the US and the Soviet Union were at war.  That could get out of hand very quickly.  Likewise, we accepted the Chinese involvement in the war but did not attack China.  The only Chinese targets that were valid were those that crossed the Yalu River into Korea.  As with the Soviets, this was to prevent an escalation.  China was newly converted to the communist cause and viewed as a Soviet satellite.  An expanded war with China might lead to war with the Soviets.

When the US supported Afghanistan in the 1980s, we started by providing Russian weapons, so it wasn't obvious.  Sure, the Soviets knew, but there wasn't a smoking gun of M-16s.  In Reagan's second term, he opened the floodgates and sent clearly American weaponry, most notably the Stinger missile.  As we had shown restraint during Korea, the Soviets did so with Afghanistan.  There were many proxy wars during the Cold War, where the great powers fought for global supremacy in some unfortunate country's backyard.

Now consider Ukraine.  The US is openly sending money and materiel.  President Biden called for the removal of Putin, a statement that was walked back by Jenn Psaki shortly after.  US legislators - including Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi - have visited Ukraine and declared support until 'victory.'  The Defense Department has posted a list of military support sent to Ukraine.  Now the news says that US Intel assisted in sinking the Russian cruiser.  The Russians can't pretend we aren't in this war.  Unlike previous clashes, this one is not some proxy war.  Where neither Stalin nor Truman were at threat in Korea, nor Reagan nor the various Soviet premiers at threat in Afghanistan, Putin is clearly in danger in this conflict.  This could be an existential threat to Putin.  And that should guide our actions.

According to the media over the last several years, Putin is a madman.  Worse, he's a madman with nuclear weapons.  We have spent decades appeasing the North Korean dictators lest they do something reckless with their nukes, but now we are undaunted by a dictator with an immense nuclear arsenal.  Putin has threatened nuclear escalation and still we poke the bear.  He's probably bluffing.  However, North Korea was probably bluffing too, but we didn't risk this kind of brinksmanship.

There are several possible explanations.  First, our leaders know that Russia will not escalate, either because we have contact in the Russian government who assure us that Putin would be deposed if he ordered a nuclear strike or we know their nuclear capacity has degraded to uselessness since the collapse of the Soviet Union, or something along these lines.  Second, our leaders have forgotten the risks.  It has been 30 years since the Cold War ended and the Cold Warriors are mostly gone.  This one is hard to swallow as President Biden himself was in Congress throughout the Afghan conflict and should know better.  Then again, Joe isn't all there these days.  Third and most cynical, the administration is in domestic freefall and needs a foreign conflict to dominate the news.  With rampant inflation, a stagnating economy, an uncontrolled border, and cratering poll numbers, there is reason to want the press to look outside the country for something to cover.