A 'Short' War

The current war with Iran started on the last day of February.  After an intense bombing campaign of six weeks, the war entered a ceasefire, which was supposed to last one week and give Iran time to negotiate an end of the hostilities on terms acceptable to the United States.  Iran blockaded the Strait of Hormuz.  The US responded by also blockading the Strait of Hormuz.  Now, two months later, the ceasefire is still active, though it is interrupted by potshots in both directions.  President Trump has insisted that talks are ongoing and a deal is close.  Iran is mum on the subject.

Trump was hoping for a short war, a quick smackdown that brought Iran to heel and ended its quest for a nuclear bomb.  Not so long ago, George W Bush wanted a short war with Afghanistan, a quick smackdown that resulted in the extraction of Osama bin Laden and his brethren.  That didn't go so well.  The problem is that the opponent is not a rational actor.  A rational leader would act to preserve the nation.  The Mullah's are religious fanatics who believe that death will lead them to paradise while compromise with the infidel will lead them to hell.  Moreover, they know that Trump has a time limit.  This is a country that has slaughtered tens of thousands of its citizens and hardly care if the US would kill an equal number or more.  Just like Afghanistan, they only have to wait until the US loses will and retreats.  Without an army on the ground, the only option is to flatten the infrastructure.  Of course, that will hurt civilians, which is why it hasn't already been done.

What to do?  First, no ceasefires unless the other side requests it.  Furthermore, the time limit must be respected.  Either we do a deal in a week or the bombing resumes.  During the Mexican-American War, the United States repeatedly granted ceasefires after winning a big victory.  The result: Santa Anna spent the time rebuilding his army and fortifying his position to fight again.  What does one suppose Iran is doing at the moment?  Certainly not engaging in peace talks that will bear fruit.  No, this is just a delay.

Next, you can't bomb them into peace.  In the Vietnam War, the Viet Cong were willing to suffer massive casualties and knew, in the end, the US would tire of killing them before it could achieve victory; they were right.  Iran is likewise willing to suffer casualties.  They cannot be bombed into submission.  Try a different tact.

Regime change is required.  As mentioned, the mullahs are religious fanatics who are going to be very difficult to bring to peace talks.  Iran's next-door neighbor is Afghanistan, where the Taliban beat the United States by waiting 20 years.  You think Iran didn't learn a lesson from that?  And there was regime change in Afghanistan.  Can the Shah's son be installed in Iran?  Probably not.  Can a civil war be triggered?  Maybe.  During World War II, the US dropped single-shot pistols on France to arm the resistance.  Reportedly, efforts to arm Iranian resistance by way of the Kurds failed; the Kurds kept the guns for themselves.  Drop some care packages with grenades and pistols, weapons that would be superfluous to the IRGC but a godsend for rebellious Iranians.

It is time to capture and fortify Kharg Island.  Reportedly a major hub for Iranian oil exports, it would make a fine US base, our Guantanamo in the Persian Gulf.  The island would immediately become a bargaining chip if negotiations happen.  Additionally, an island can be defended by the navy, which can easily prevent Iranian troops from landing and retaking it.  Between capturing this oil depot and blockading oil shipments in general, Iran will starve for money.  However, Iran has foreign benefactors who will likely channel enough money to keep the country afloat until America surrenders.

Okay, last idea: the bust the place up strategy.  Years ago, during one of President Bush's nation building fiascos, R Emmett Tyrell suggested this tactic.  Since you can't build a nation, tear down the offending one.  He likened it to a barroom brawl where all the tables are busted the mirror over the bar shattered, the bottles broken, and so forth.  Afterwards, those who caused the destruction depart and the bar owner is left to clean up the mess.  It could be a long time before the bar reopens for business.  It might even go under.  Some call this the Bomb 'em to the Stone Age technique.  However, this one will result in huge waves of refugees and, knowing Europe, they will accept them all and hasten the formation of Eurostan.

Unless Trump has some aces up his sleeve, this looks like a stalemate.  Sure, on the one hand, the Iranian nuclear threat has been crippled and continued vigilance will keep it that way.  On the other, the US is once again stuck in an ongoing Middle East conflict with no clear path to exit.