A Glimpse of Europe's Future

Ceuta is a Spanish enclave on the coast of Africa.  It has been a Spanish enclave since 1415.  The population is somewhere around 80,000 people.  This week, tens of thousands of Moroccans flooded into the area, overwhelming border enforcement and leaving residents in panic.  Thanks to the new law passed by the Spanish government, these folks can claim asylum.  If that happens, the flood will continue until Spain is destitute and no longer Spanish.  The seriousness of the situation is clear in that fellow Schengen Zone members are closing their borders to Spain.

Where some European countries (e.g., Denmark, Sweden, Italy) have begun to push back against the continuing waves of non-assimilating immigrants, others have left the borders open (e.g., U.K., Spain, Ireland).  Unlike the United States, which is not a country based on an ethnicity, most Europeans are.  Thus, though a person from Japan could become an American, he could not become English, French, or Swedish.  Rudyard Kipling may have been born and raised in India, but he was always an English.  On the current path, Europe is doomed.  The immigrants are having far more kids.  Without remigration in the very near future, much of Europe will suffer a similar fate to Ceuta.

Europe, NATO, and Ukraine

Much is being made of the recent Oval Office tiff between President Trump and President Zelensky.  Critics claim that Trump's failure to support Ukraine in its continuing battle against Russia is no different from taking Putin's side in the conflict.  Always, criticism of Ukraine is labeled as apologist behavior on behalf of Russia.  However, I want to know what is our interest in Ukraine?  What national interest are we serving?  Why can't the Europeans tackle this one?  Let's consider some numbers:

Russia is the 11th largest economy in the world with a $2 trillion GDP.  It has a population of 145 million people.

The United States is the largest economy with a $27 trillion GDP.  We have population of 343 million.

If not for nuclear warheads, Russia is a gnat compared to the USA.  But what about Europe?

The European Union consists of 27 countries with a combined GDP of $18.6 trillion and a combined population of 450 million.  Germany alone has a GDP of $4.5 trillion (more than double Russia, you will note) and a population of 84 million.  France and Italy also have larger GDPs than Russia.  Why can't the European Union deal with the Ukraine problem?  After all, it is their backyard, not ours.

Let's consider NATO.  Not including the USA, there are 31 NATO countries with a combined GDP of $24.7 trillion and a combined population of 640 million.  That is 12 times the GDP and 4 times the population of Russia.  Moreover, several of these countries are nuclear powers.

After World War II, it made sense for the United States to guarantee the defense of Europe while it rebuilt from the ruins.  The Soviets had shown a clear desire to annex territory and impose communism.  NATO was needed to defend the remnants of the West.  Today, that clearly isn't the case.  The Soviet Union collapsed 30 years ago and we are pretending it is still a threat.  Either the European Union or the Non-USA members of NATO could easily defeat Russia if they put any resources into it.  The US should have spent the last 30 years weening Europe off of the USA paying for its defense.  They're all grown up now and can defend themselves.

NATO has outlived its purpose.  We should stop funding Ukraine and stop subsidizing European defense.

Presidents should be Parents First

Several years ago, during one of those meetings of the major economic powers of Europe and the United States, it was noted that most of the European leaders were childless.  Not just a couple of them but most of them had no kids.  Never even tried to have kids.  How strange.  One might ask, What does that matter?  If you have kids, you have a stake in the future.  You don't want to enjoy the party for yourself and leave an absolute mess for your kids.  But if you have no kids, what do you care?

Angela Merkel had no children.  She also opened the floodgates for migrants who were not the best fit for Germany.  With no investment in Germany's future, she was willing to make changes with little concern for the longterm consequences.

Kamala Harris is childless.  Sure, she has a step-daughter through her husband, but that's not the same thing.  A parent looks at the landscape being left for their children and grandchildren.  A politician looks at the next election.  The childless politicians of Europe have set the continent on a downward spiral with a crashing fertility rate and a rapidly expanding foreign population that has no desire to be British, French, German, or any other flavor of European.  No need to go down that path.

Ukraine: Should We Care?

Obviously, we should care about war and strife, but is this our fight?  I would argue not.  Some years ago, I was looking at comparative economies and was astonished to find that Russia was quite unimpressive.  According to 2017 numbers, the USA had a $19 trillion economy, China was at $12 trillion, and Russia was $1.6 trillion.  Canada had a bigger economy in 2017.  Germany has twice the economy of Russia. If just the big names of Europe (France, Germany, UK, & Italy all have bigger economies than Russia) pooled resources, they have an $11 trillion economy.  Hey, what if we added Spain, Portugal, Sweden, Denmark, and so on combined resources?  That would be roughly $18 trillion.  Why can't they deal with the comparative pauper of Russia?  It's in their backyard, not ours.  No, let's have the US taxpayer bail us out again, as they have been doing since World War II.  The combined population of France and Germany is 150 million.  Russia is at 145 million and falling.  Europe has more than enough resources to deal with Russia.

Only 6 months ago, the Biden Administration fled a backwater where the opposition was armed with AK-47s and little more.  Too tough.  Oh, but nuclear-armed Russia with tanks, jets, missiles, artillery, and so forth is a fight that we can handle.  Nope.  Europe has spent the last 77 years outsourcing its defense to the United States.  I think it's time they resume control.

Cold War, Part 2?

With the ejection of diplomats/spies in the United States and Russia, there is talk that we are entering a new Cold War.  Unlikely.  Sure, we may not have the best of relations but the US is the world's number 1 economy and Russia ranks about 12th at a paltry 7% of the US economy.  California alone has an economy twice the size of Russia.  Economically, Russia is to the US what Slovakia is to Russia.  South Korea has a bigger economy than Russia!  Embarrassing.  Coal and Petroleum are the big exports for Russia and US fracking has depressed prices.  When ANWR starts producing, the oil market is going to be even more competitive.  We can economically hamstring Russia just by drilling for oil here.  Win-win!  As far as population, Russia is suffering a decline in population and has only 45% as many people as the US.  What about allies?  The US could count on the majority of the EU, Japan, South Korea, India, and probably most of the former Soviet Republics.  Russia can look forward to support from Syria and Iran.  China might adopt Russia as the new North Korea but wouldn't commit itself.  The breakup of the Soviet Union left Russia as a far less formidable country.

 

Putin benefits from memories of the Soviet days and makes great use of the memories of the former super power.

Catalonian Independence

As a fan of federalism and local control, the idea of Catalonian independence sounds great.  The region has a its own language, Catalan, which I tried unsuccessfully to learn while in Barcelona.  All the signs are in both Spanish and Catalan.  With Spain having surrendered a large chunk of its sovereignty to the European Union, why can't Catalonia ditch the middleman in this arrangement and have its own representatives at the EU?

When in the Course of human events, it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another, and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature's God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation.

This is foundational to the United States and who are we to oppose others making the same decision?  If a people declare the intention to dissolve the bonds, then those wishing the bonds to continue need to make the case.  A majority vote to leave - whether held legally or not - does not happen in the response to good government.  Of course, if Spain allows Catalonia to go, the Basque country is next.  Freedom and centralized authority do not mix.

 

If Catalonia secures independence, I recommend an immediate withdrawal from the EU.  Don't trade Madrid for Brussels.