Flatten the Curve

Some states, notably Georgia, are reopening their economies.  Many are critical of this.  However, the whole point of the lockdown was to flatten the curve, not wait out the virus.  In many states, the hospital and ventilator capacity is far from full usage.  When the number of infected who need hospitalization exceed the capacity, the death rate goes way up.  For example, Italy and New York City.  There is a balance to be struck.  We have enough data to know that the death rate for those under 40 is extremely low.  The news has reported the teen in France who died and the 20 something in New York but these are the exceptions not the rule.  According to antibody testing, the vast majority - possibly 50 to 80 times the reported infected - of infected people didn't need any medical intervention.  Older people should stay in lockdown but younger people should get back to work.  The vast majority of them - 99.9% - who do contract the disease will be fine and contribute to the goal of herd immunity.

However, for those opposed, it is great that only some states are opening up.  This provides a perfect test case without threatening everyone.  If Georgia doesn't suffer a massive uptick in critical cases in 3 to 4 weeks time, then Governor Kemp will be vindicated.  If the states finds its hospital capacity pushed beyond the limit and deaths skyrocket, then his critics will have all that stronger a case.  Let federalism work and the people of Georgia can benefit or suffer for their elective choice.

Look into My Crystal Ball

Just over two months ago, I predicted that the Republican would win the 6th District of Georgia.  Tonight, Karen Handel defeated Jon Ossoff in the runoff.  In truth, it wasn't much of a prediction.  A heavily Republican district elected a Republican.  What a surprise.  Thanks to vast sums of money or the approval ratings of the president, it was closer than it might otherwise have been.  However, I was incorrect in saying that Reuters would only provide a colorless two sentence summation of the results.  Though Republicans have won four special elections since the Orange Overlord was inaugurated, the AP managed to paint the margins of victory as portending future doom for the Republicans:

Republicans are claiming momentum ahead of the 2018 midterms, but each race was much closer than expected for the four districts.

Next time, the Republicans are toast.  Be of good cheer, Democrats, this winning can't continue much longer.  Yes, the AP is a totally unbiased news organization.

 

With the pathetic legislative accomplishments, it is clear that the Republicans could be in serious trouble if they don't achieve something.  The only positive that the GOP currently has is that the alternative is the Democrats.

 

Why isn't everyone celebrating that the woman won?  I think she may be the first woman to win the 6th District in Georgia.  That's historic!  Of course, such 'firsts' are only important if accomplished by Democrats.  No one cares that Mia Love was the first Haitian American and first black female Republican elected to Congress, nor that she was the first Black American elected to Congress in Utah.  Only the achievements of Democratic women are worthy of note.

Apples, Oranges, and Reuters

Here is an article from Reuters that gives the clear impression that the Democrat resurgence is about to begin in Georgia's 6th District.  With Tom Price having been confirmed to be Secretary of Health and Human Services, his seat will have a special election to fill it.  The article is best described as very optimistic for Democrat chances.  Here we have a "grassroots anti-Trump fervor" and there we have a candidate raising "a jaw-dropping" amount of money.  A veteran activist explains that she has "never seen Democrats around here so enraged" and attributes it to Trump.  Then we have a rundown of the exciting demographics that are likely to benefit Democrats.  Gee, it sounds like it's in the bag, a sure thing.  Fourteen paragraphs into the story, it is mentioned that Tom Price (R) won the 6th district by 62-38.  Yeah, that sounds like a really competitive district.  But what is more important is that Trump only won the district by 1.5% margin.  So in a congressional race, Reuters decided to base Democrat chances on the margin in the presidential election.  Apples and oranges.

 

Of course, what is Reuters recent record on predicting election results?

 

Reuters/Ipsos Polling results

November 3rd

1. Hillary leads in Ohio by 3, lost by 8.5
2. Hillary leads in Pennsylvania by 6, lost by 1
3. Hillary leads in Michigan by 4, lost by less than 1

November 4th

1. Hillary leads in North Carolina by 2, lost by 3.5

November 7th

1. Hillary 90% likely to win presidency
2. Democrats 55% likely to recapture the Senate
3. Republicans 70% likely to hold the House

 

It is no wonder that so many were shocked by the eventual results.  With this record, I suspect that the 6th District in Georgia will be handily won by a Republican in the likely June 20 runoff.  Reuters will offer one of their standard 2 sentence stories to report it rather than this 1,100 word wishful analysis.  Reuters certainly will not confuse the results of a Republican win as an endorsement of Trump policies.