Here is an article from Reuters that gives the clear impression that the Democrat resurgence is about to begin in Georgia's 6th District. With Tom Price having been confirmed to be Secretary of Health and Human Services, his seat will have a special election to fill it. The article is best described as very optimistic for Democrat chances. Here we have a "grassroots anti-Trump fervor" and there we have a candidate raising "a jaw-dropping" amount of money. A veteran activist explains that she has "never seen Democrats around here so enraged" and attributes it to Trump. Then we have a rundown of the exciting demographics that are likely to benefit Democrats. Gee, it sounds like it's in the bag, a sure thing. Fourteen paragraphs into the story, it is mentioned that Tom Price (R) won the 6th district by 62-38. Yeah, that sounds like a really competitive district. But what is more important is that Trump only won the district by 1.5% margin. So in a congressional race, Reuters decided to base Democrat chances on the margin in the presidential election. Apples and oranges.
Of course, what is Reuters recent record on predicting election results?
Reuters/Ipsos Polling results
November 3rd
- Hillary leads in Ohio by 3, lost by 8.5
- Hillary leads in Pennsylvania by 6, lost by 1
- Hillary leads in Michigan by 4, lost by less than 1
November 4th
- Hillary leads in North Carolina by 2, lost by 3.5
November 7th
- Hillary 90% likely to win presidency
- Democrats 55% likely to recapture the Senate
- Republicans 70% likely to hold the House
It is no wonder that so many were shocked by the eventual results. With this record, I suspect that the 6th District in Georgia will be handily won by a Republican in the likely June 20 runoff. Reuters will offer one of their standard 2 sentence stories to report it rather than this 1,100 word wishful analysis. Reuters certainly will not confuse the results of a Republican win as an endorsement of Trump policies.
No comments:
Post a Comment