Gerrymander

Based on the 2024 election results, there are 21 blue states and 29 red states.  The blue states account for 206 seats in the House of Representatives.  The red states account for 229.  Of course, there are Republican Congressmen from blue states and Democratic Congressmen from red states.  How does that break down?

Now let's talk gerrymandering.  The idea is rather than let the voters pick their representative, the representative picks the voters.  This allows for safe seats or splitting strongholds of the other party into bite-size chunks that can be overwhelmed and digested by the ruling party.  Depending on how the districts are drawn, the dominant party can greatly weaken the opposition.  Let's look at some examples.

Illinois (blue) has 17 congressional districts.  In 2024, the state votes 43% for Trump and 54% for Harris.  How many Republican congressmen are there from Illinois?  Three.  That is 17% representation.

Texas (red) has 38 districts.  In 2024, the state went to Trump by 56% to 42% vote.  How many Democrat congressmen from Texas?  Thirteen.  That is 34%.

California (blue) has 52 districts and broke heavily for Harris: 58% to 38%.  Republicans hold 9 of the 52 seats, or 17%.

Many states are difficult to gerrymander.  Several only have 1 congressman (Alaska, Delaware, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont, and Wyoming).  The smaller states - 4 congressional districts or less - are mostly unremarkable.  That eliminates 21 states from the list, leaving 14 blue states and 15 red states.  Here is the new breakdown:

First thing to note is that there were no Republicans in the smaller blue states, but there were 5 Democrats in the smaller red states.  Interesting.  In a red state, representation is 71% Republican vs. 29% Democrat.  In a blue state, it is 73% Democrat to 27% Republican.  Not a big difference.

Harris carried blue states by an average of 55% to 43%.  Trump carried red states by an average of 58% to 41%.  Trump performed better in blue states than Harris in red states and yet, the House was on a razor's edge.  

The blue states have done a far better job of gerrymandering than the red states.  If the Republicans adopt the same strategy, they will gain seats.  Having already gerrymandered the blue states, there is little the Democrats can do to counter it, other than complain.  That 34% representation in Texas might soon drop to the level of an Illinois or California.

In the near future, perhaps an unbiased AI can draw districts that don't create ludicrous zigzag patterns that weave through various counties and cities to generate a safe seat for the dominant party.  For the time being, a party would be foolish not to gerrymander.

Fiscal Health and Voting

The Mercatus Center's latest research paper shows the fiscal health of the states.  The health is based on five factors: Cash solvency, Budget solvency, long-run solvency, service-level solvency, and trust fund solvency.  By ranking each state on each of these factors, the study determined how well the states were doing in comparison to each other.  Though not part of the study, Investor's Business Daily (IBD) noted that low-tax Republican states rated high while high-tax Democrat states rated low.  Here is a basic breakdown:

Top 5 States: Florida, North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah, and Wyoming lead the rankings.  Though Florida was not number 1 in any single factor, its high marks in each earned it the top spot.  Of note, Trump won all 5 of these states.

Above Average States: Nebraska, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Idaho, Montana, Alabama, Ohio, Nevada, North Carolina, Indiana, Alaska, and Virginia are doing fairly well.  Trump won 11 of these state and Hillary won 2.

Average States: South Carolina, Arkansas, Oregon, Georgia, Texas, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Washington, Hawaii, Iowa, Wisconsin, Colorado, and Delaware sit in the middle.  Hillary won 7 of these states to Trump's 6.

Below Average: Kansas, Arizona, Mississippi, Maine, Michigan, Connecticut, Rhode Island, New York, Vermont, New Mexico, West Virginia, California, Louisiana, and Pennsylvania all need improvement to stave off an Illinois-type disaster.  Trump and Hillary split these with 7 each.

Bottom 5 States: Maryland, Kentucky, Massachusetts, Illinois, and New Jersey were at the bottom.  Chris Christie was a Republican hero when he first burst onto the scene with his tough talk about getting the fiscal house in order.  The state is now 37th in cash solvency, 49th in budget solvency, 50th in long-run solvency, 24th in service level solvency, and 39th in trust fund solvency.  The reason Illinois is the one going bankrupt first is because New Jersey still has some cash available to pay bills for a bit longer; Illinois is 48th in cash solvency.  Hillary won 4 of these states to Trump's 1.

IBD has a chart that shows the top 10 states are run by Republicans (sole exception being a Democrat governor in Montana) while 6 of the bottom 10 are Democrat and 2 of the Republican states have Democrat governors.  Want fiscal health?  Vote Republican.