Jackson: A Novel

It is 1828.  After 9-years of living in France, Harvard graduate David Chase returned to the United States upon his father's death.  He was left nothing.  Near penniless, he sought employment; he was a writer.  As luck would have it, William Short was looking for someone to write the definitive biography of Andrew Jackson.  Chase accepted the commission.

While the presidential campaign of 1828 is played like a chess game between Andrew Jackson and President John Quincy Adams, Chase interacts with a wide variety of historical figures from the era.  In the background, the biography of Andrew Jackson is told as chapters of Chase's book.  The New Orleans campaign dominates the biography and is the source of Jackson's fame.

The book uses point-of-view characters - some real, some fictional - to tell its story.

- Andrew Jackson is central character but has a limited role as a POV character.  Painted as a man of iron will, volcanic anger, bristling gray hair, and a stick thin bean pole, Jackson is not the illiterate backwoodsman that many thought.

- John Coffee has been Jackson's friend and ally for forty years.  A bear of a man who serves as Jackson's right hand, he plays a large role in protecting Jackson from scandal and managing the campaign with Alexander Hamilton's son, James.

- John Quincy Adams is a disciplined man of great intellect and talent, but a complete lack of charisma.  His son, Charles Francis Adams, serves as his secretary and his wife, Louisa, is unhappy.  Adams comes across as hapless, though entirely laudable.

Fictional POV characters:

- David Chase is a fictional character who crisscrosses the country to research his Jackson biography.  Though American by birth, he feels like an outsider thanks to his many years in France.  Washington City is a backwater compared to Paris and Nashville even more so.  Nonetheless, he finds himself admiring Jackson with each new chapter he writes.

- Mr. Hogwood, an Englishman, proved to be the first writer that William Short had employed.  Though dismissed in favor of Chase, Hogwood provided his research so far to Chase and made introductions to his contacts in Washington City.  Many of the early chapters of Jackson's life are written by Hogwood.

- Emma Colden is Hogwood's beautiful daughter and the object of Chase's desire.  An aspiring writer herself, she frequently complains that women are not allowed such freedoms.  When she is the POV, it is usually when there is an interview with noteworthy women such as Louisa Adams or Fanny Wright.

The book paints an excellent picture of America in 1828, from Boston, to Washington City, to Nashville, to New Orleans.  Historical figures such as John Randolph, Sam Houston, John Eaton, Nicholas Trist, George Ticknor, Sarah Hale, Frances Milton Trollope, and many more have something to say about the campaign, America, women's rights, slavery, Jackson, Jefferson, and other subjects.  Here is a dynamic country where technology is racing and possibilities are limitless.

Outstanding book and highly recommended.

Three Time Nominee

Generally speaking, politicians only win the nomination for president one or two times.  Parties normally only nominate the politician for a 2nd time if he is the incumbent.  To take examples from recent years, Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, George Bush, Bill Clinton, George W Bush, Barack Obama, and Donald Trump were each nominated for 2nd terms while Walter Mondale, Michael Dukakis, Bob Dole, Al Gore, John Kerry, John McCain, Mitt Romney, and Hillary Clinton were not renominated.  The winners get a second shot while the losers are usually tossed aside.  Of course, there are exceptions.  Sometimes the loser is given a second chance.  For instance, Adlai Stevenson lost to Eisenhower in 1952, but was nominated again in 1956; he lost again.  In a couple of cases, there have been three-time losers: both Henry Clay & William Jennings Bryan were nominees in 3 separate elections.

Looking only at men who served as president, how many of them were nominated on three separate occasions?

Thomas Jefferson was the Democratic-Republican nominee for president in 1796, 1800, and 1804.  He came in second place in 1796, which secured him the vice presidency.  He won the presidency in 1800 and was nominated for re-election in 1804.

Andrew Jackson was one of four Democratic-Republican nominees in 1824.  Though he won the plurality of electoral votes and popular vote, he lost to John Quincy Adams in the contingent election.  He was the Democratic nominee (the Democratic-Republican party had split into factions after the 1824 debacle) in both 1828 and 1832.

Martin Van Buren was Andrew Jackson's chosen successor.  He won in 1836 and was renominated in 1840.  Though he lost in 1840, he became the Free-Soil Party candidate in 1848, marking his 3rd time running in the general election.

Grover Cleveland ran for office in 1884 and won.  However, when he ran for re-election in 1888, he lost to Benjamin Harrison.  He secured the Democratic nomination again in 1892 and won.  He was the first president to serve non-consecutive terms.

Richard Nixon ran for president in 1960.  He lost to JFK.  However, he managed to win the nomination again in 1968 and went on to win the presidency.  He won re-election in 1972, though he didn't finish his term.

Donald Trump duplicated Grover Cleveland's feat.  He won in 2016, lost his 2020 re-election bid, but then came back to win in 2024.

Of this group, Jefferson, Jackson, Cleveland, and Trump were nominees in three consecutive elections.

Wild Swing in Participation

As everyone knows by now, Donald Trump has won the election and thus will be the second president to serve non-consecutive terms.  Grover Cleveland served as both the 22nd and 24th President.  That's interesting, but what I find more interesting is the vote totals in the last several elections:

These are the vote totals for Democrat and Republican candidates over the last 5 elections.  As this doesn't consider 3rd parties, it is just ballpark but useful.  Here it is as a chart:

2008 was a banner year, the biggest turnout ever in which President Obama won nearly 70 million votes but his reelection in 2012 saw a drop off in participation of roughly 2.5 million voters.

2016 exceeded 2008 in total voters (Trump and Hillary drove a surprising number of voters to the 3rd parties) but the two parties only received about 2 million more votes than in 2012.

2020 blew the doors off all previous elections, seeing nearly 27 million more voters than 2016!

As of this writing, 2024 has seen a stunning drop of 16 million voters.  Where did they go?  Is this a matter of apathy, tougher voting requirements, or something else?  A ballot arriving in the mailbox while everyone was quarantined by COVID offered a distraction whereas today voting was just a hassle?  This will be a topic for the history books in the not-too-distant future.

But Georgia is not called for Trump?

 

Reporting percentage is greater than in Virginia but still no call.  Interesting.

Ahead of My Time

Four years ago, I asked if Biden would bow out.  Why?  Because it was obvious that he was going senile.  What is interesting is what I supposed might happen:

Having won the nomination, he could admit to his mental decline and gracefully bow out. The Democratic Convention has a floor fight to pick the nominee. That could generate a lot of excitement though it does have the problem of nixing the primary results. ...  If Biden does bow out, Democrats will angle for a black woman. Then, any criticism of her - or her policies - will be either racist or sexist, possibly both.

Thanks to the Democrat-aligned media, Joe's dementia was kept under wraps for nearly his entire term.  Not until his ill-advised June debate - carefully timed to take place after the nomination was secured but still leaving plenty of time to boost his replacement - did the country have clear evidence of his mental decline.  The Democrats did not bother with a floor fight and simply elevated Kamala Harris - a black woman - to the top spot.

There is a new wrinkle though.  Joe was replaced because he was mentally impaired (and should be removed by the 25th amendment), but his replacement has adopted his 2020 campaign strategy: avoid the press.  Kamala Harris has not had an unscripted event since being named the nominee.  The basement strategy won last time; let's try it again. 

Ballot Access Problem

VP Harris may have an issue with getting her name on all the ballots.  Joe Biden won every race, which was how one gets his name on the November ballot.  By dropping out, that does not automatically change the name.  Nor does his endorsement after his dropout assure that the endorsee is listed on the ballot.  What if he had endorsed Trump?  Crazy, but we all know his endorsement in that case would be ignored and tossed.  Let's suppose all the delegates vote for Kamala at the forthcoming convention.  That would be a return to the old style of choosing candidates, back before we had primaries.  One of the reasons for the switch to primaries was to disempower the political bosses in the smoke-filled rooms from imposing a candidate.  The primaries chose Joe Biden; the party bosses have selected Kamala Harris.  Is that legal?

Bernie Sanders' supporters took the Democratic Party to court for putting a thumb on the scale against him.  The judge agreed that the party 'cheated' to make sure Bernie wasn't the nominee, but the party gets to do what it wants.  It's a political party, not a government agency or business that must follow laws.  It is not up to the courts to decide how political parties choose candidates.  With that in mind, the switch to Kamala is likely to be fine as far as the party is concerned but that still leaves the states.

States have election laws.  Do the states allow for a switch after the primary?  Most almost certainly do, but maybe not all.  That could be a problem.  Back in June, there was a concern that Joe Biden would not appear on the Ohio ballot.  Legislation was passed and the Republican governor signed it in order that Joe Biden would be listed on the Ohio ballot; there was a deadline, which is why it was a newsworthy issue.  Will there need to be additional legislation to switch to Kamala?  If so, should the Republicans oblige?  Lawfare is apparently fair play this year.

I have heard it asserted that Joe Biden will either resign or be forced out of office before the election.  Why?  Because that will make VP Harris the president and the sitting president is always listed on the ballot.  Here is the opportunity to overcome any legal issues and transform Kamala Harris into the incumbent president.  Is it likely?  Probably not, but I wouldn't rule it out.