Friday, April 7, 2017

Resetting the Table

The strike on Syria coincided with President Xi Jinping visiting President Trump in Florida.  It is highly unlikely that the timing was coincidental.  Launching a military strike while the leader of one of the great powers is visiting sends a message, especially with the rising tensions over China's client state, North Korea.  If Trump is willing to attack a Russian client state, what's to stop him from doing the same with China?  Syria is the Gordian Knot of conflicts, involving Russia, Turkey, Iran, ISIS, the Kurds, Jordan, Israel, and others.  The boldness (recklessness?) of such an attack is a 180 degree shift from recent US policy.  Trump has not moved pieces on the chessboard, he has thrown the chessboard on the floor.

Trump has a long history of showmanship and running casinos.  Is this some grand bluff that no one risks calling?  Throughout the campaign, Trump gave the impression that his foreign policy would not be much different than Obama's, maybe less ambitious.  The Syrian strike came as a complete surprise.  To the good, Trump has swept away the America-as-doormat view that took hold during the Obama years.  To the bad, Trump might actually wage a war along the lines of Libya, bypassing congress and risking an even wider war because of all the players on that field.
 
If the attack is not sustained, this may have been a brilliant reset, a shock to the global order that restores America's primacy in one fell swoop.  However, there is talk of deposing Assad again which sounds like the entanglement is only just beginning.  Syria is a far more dangerous conflict than Afghanistan, Iraq, or Libya.

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