Presidential States

If someone were to ask "Which president was born in Illinois?" most people would answer, "Abraham Lincoln."  Illinois is known as the Land of Lincoln, after all.  Wrong.  The correct answer is Ronald Reagan.  Often times, the state where the president rose to political prominence is not the state in which they were born.  Interestingly, some states have produced a lot more presidents than others.  With only 13 states in the beginning, the selection was limited, but even with 50, fewer than half have produced a president.

Virginia tops the list in producing presidents.  Eight presidents were born in this state: George Washington (1), Thomas Jefferson (3), James Madison (4), James Monroe (5), William Henry Harrison (9), John Tyler (10), Zachary Taylor (12), and Woodrow Wilson (28).  William Henry Harrison rose to prominence in the west - which was Indiana Territory - before being elected president.  Zachary Taylor's family moved to Kentucky in his childhood, but he spent his life along the frontiers in the Army.  Woodrow Wilson's political career was in New Jersey though he sympathized with the South.

Ohio is the second ranked state for presidents.  Seven presidents were born in Ohio: Ulysses S Grant (18), Rutherford B Hayes (19), James Garfield (20), Benjamin Harrison (23), William McKinley (25), William Howard Taft (27), and Warren G Harding (29).  Of particular note, every president elected from 1868 to 1900 was from Ohio, with the sole exception being Cleveland.

New York rounds out the top three for presidential birth states: Martin Van Buren (8), Millard Filmore (13), Theodore Roosevelt (26), Franklin Delano Roosevelt (32), and Donald Trump (45).  Each of these men made it there so they could make it anywhere.

Massachusetts is fourth with four: John Adams (2), John Quincy Adams (6), John F Kennedy (35), and George HW Bush (41) were born in the Bay State.  It looks like John is the name to have if you want to be president from here.  Seeing the John pattern, George moved to Texas and started his political career there.

North Carolina produced three presidents.  Probably.  Andrew Jackson (7) was born somewhere along the border of North Carolina and South Carolina, so perhaps North Carolina should only get a half credit for him.  James Knox Polk (11) and Andrew Johnson (17) were born in North Carolina.  It is noteworthy that all three of these men rose to prominence in Tennessee, two of them serving as governors of the state.

There is a 3-way tie next: Pennsylvania, Vermont, and Texas

Pennsylvania is the birthplace of both James Buchanan (15) and Joseph Biden (46).  Buchanan began politicking in the state and served as a Representative and a Senator from Pennsylvania before becoming Secretary of State for Polk.  Joseph Biden was born in the state but his family relocated to Delaware when he was 10.  His political career has ever since been tied to the First State.

Vermont may have been the birthplace, but neither made a name for himself as Bernie Sanders has.  Chester Arthur (21) was born in Vermont but rose to prominence in New York.  Calvin "Silent Cal" Coolidge (30) was also born in Vermont, but his political career is all Massachusetts.

Texas has produced two presidents, and one is not who you might think.  Dwight Eisenhower (34) was born in Texas but his family moved to Kansas when he was 2 years old.  Eisenhower considered himself to be a Kansan, not a Texan.  Lyndon Johnson (36) was elected to the House of Representatives in 1936 and became a senator in 1949.  He was Texas through and through.

The remaining states all produced only one president each.

New Hampshire: Franklin Pierce (14)

Kentucky: Abraham Lincoln (16) was born here but his family moved to Indiana while he was a boy.  He moved to the Land of Lincoln as an adult.

New Jersey: Grover Cleveland (22 & 24) was 13 when the family moved to New York, where he eventually entered politics.

Iowa: Herbert Hoover (31) was a mining engineer who earned several appointive offices during World War I and its aftermath.  His first elective office was the presidency.

Missouri: Harry Truman (33) is just the kind of man who would come from the Show Me State.

California: Richard Nixon (37)

Nebraska: Gerald Ford (38) was born in Omaha but relocated to Grand Rapids, Michigan, as an infant.

Georgia: Jimmy Carter (39)

Illinois: Ronald Reagan (40) grew up in Illinois before moving to Iowa to do radio.  While on the road in California, he got an acting contract.  From Bedtime for Bonzo to California Governor and then the White House.

Arkansas: Bill Clinton (42)

Connecticut: George W Bush (43) moved to Texas as a boy, but was educated in New England.  After Yale and Harvard, he returned to Texas and eventually politics.

Hawaii: Barack Obama (44) was born in Hawaii?  Well, that's what the birth certificate shows.  :)

Just 20 states have produced the 45 presidents.  Of course, many of these had little to do with their state of birth, building careers elsewhere.  Both Lincoln and Obama should be counted for Illinois, the Bushes for Texas, Reagan for California, and so on.  I may just do that in another blog.

Plot Twist

Last week, an entire homeless shelter was tested for Covid-19.  Of the 397 tested, 146 were positive.  Now for the plot twist: none of them had symptoms.  37% infection rate and only 1 needed treatment.  According to the official numbers, only 0.5% of Massachusetts residents have been infected and it has been lethal for 3.9% of those infected.  But this could turn that story on its head.  What if 10% have been infected but most showed no signs.  In Massachusetts, that would be 700,000 infections with 1,245 deaths.  That would drop the lethality rate to 0.2%, about twice as bad as the flu but is it national lockdown bad?  We are so focused on the size of the numerator without knowing the denominator.  We are in desperate need for randomized testing to determine the denominator.

As of April 16, 665,000 Americans have tested positive and 34,613 have died.  That's a 5% fatality rate.  What if 6 million have been infected?  That would make it fatal in less than 1% of cases.  That we don't know and that the homeless shelter numbers came as such a surprise is reason for concern.

Electoral College Defense

Seeing as Hillary has more popular votes than Trump, the argument against the Electoral College is in full swing.  That she didn't break 50% should end the discussion.  In most cases of multiple candidates where no one reaches 50% plus 1 vote, there is a run off between the two top voter getters.  In US Presidential Elections, the electoral college serves as the run off.  Case closed.  But that isn't going to satisfy anyone so let's ponder the fictional Republic of Moparcos.

Much like Gaul, Moparcos is divided in three parts.  There is the mountainous northern state of Mo, the central prairie state of Par, and the warm coastal state of Cos.  All three states have roughly the same population.  The Founders of Moparcos adopted an Electoral College and all three states have 10 electoral votes.  Each state has a population of 6 million.  As it happens, this is an election year in Moparcos.

Governor Bronze of Cos is running for president against General Ramrod, hero of the recent war.  Thanks to his position as governor, Bronze uses his political machine to increase turnout in his state.  Of the 4 million votes cast, the popular governor wins 3 million and takes the state's 10 electoral votes.  General Ramrod grew up in Par and is a favorite son but he doesn't have a ground game.  The turnout is only 3 million voters and Ramrod edges out Bronze by 1.6 million votes to 1.4 million, getting the 10 electoral votes.  Neither General Ramrod nor Governor Bronze have much of a ground game in Mo.  As it happens, there is a huge snow storm on election day and the turnout is dismal.  Only 2 million voters go to the polls but Ramrod wins 1.1 million votes to Bronze's 900 thousand.  Thus, Ramrod gets the electoral votes and is the next president of Moparcos.

 

But let's look at that again.  Bronze won 3 million votes in Cos, 1.4 million in Par, and 0.9 million in Mo for a grand total of 5.3 million votes out of 9 million cast.  He got 59% of the popular vote and lost!  However, General Ramrod won two states that contain 12 million people where Bronze won 1 state of 6 million.  The electoral college performs a vote-weighting.  The voters in each state are 'speaking' for the 6 million people in the state.  That Cos had a 67% turnout vs. the 33% turnout from Mo doesn't mean that Cos should have double the influence for national politics.

Let's take a current election example:

Arizona, Massachusetts, and Indiana have just about the same population and account for 11 electoral votes each.  Trump won Arizona (49.5% to 45.5%) and Indiana (57.6% to 38.2%%).  Hillary won Massachusetts (60.8% to 33.5%).  Trump won 22 electoral votes to Hillary's 11.  However, far more voters turned out in Massachusetts (3.2 million) than in Arizona (2.1 million).  Adding up the popular vote of the three states, Hillary wins with 3.9 million votes to Trump's 3.7 million.  Massachusetts provided 40% of the popular votes but only represents 1/3 of the population of these three states.  By contrast, Arizona only provided 26% of the popular votes despite being the most populous of the three states.

Arizona is more than 10 times the size of Massachusetts.  The population density is 57 people per square mile.  Massachusetts has a density of 840 people per square mile.  Where will it be easier to organize voters?  In a popular vote system, population dense areas will have far more say than less dense areas even if the overall populations are equal.  The electoral college accounts for this.  In a popular vote system, the rural areas will be ruled by the urban centers.