The Space Powers

As of now, only three countries are capable of putting astronauts in space: USA, Russia, and China.  For the last 20 years, the USA and Russia have been more or less allies in space, jointly maintaining the International Space Station (ISS) and providing rides for astronauts of other countries to that station.  Fron the retirement of the Space Shuttle (2011) until the introduction of the SpaceX Crew Dragon (2020), Russia launched all crews to the station.  China is the newcomer in space and has made impressive progress.  While the ISS is nearing retirement (perhaps sooner than expected considering current politics), China has begun assembling a competing space station.

That brings us to Ukraine.  Is it in the best interest of the United States to drive Russia toward an alliance with China?  With both an economy and a population that is ten times the size of Russia's, China is the greater challenge in the future.  Space dominance will be very important sooner than we realize.  If two of the three space powers align against the 3rd, that could be decisive.  This is especially so when one looks at the lack of alternatives the US currently has: SpaceX or Bust.

As noted in an earlier blog, NATO has been pressing Russia since the fall of the Soviet Union.  The US has trained Ukrainians and provided weapons.  This constant encroachment signaled that the Cold War was still being fought and NATO was stealing marches on the Russians by annexing more and more of the former Warsaw Pact, ever diminishing the sphere of influence of the once great power.  If the roles were reversed and the Warsaw Pact was training Mexican troops, providing them with arms, and calling for Mexico to join the Pact, it is a certainty that the US would invade and give Mexico a smackdown; we've done it more than once already.

We have pursued a foreign policy that is not in our interests.  Though a nation should have the option of choosing its allies, that doesn't always work in a multipolar world.  Hong Kong would surely have preferred to remain in the British Empire and Cuba wanted to be a Soviet satellite.  Each was denied.  Though we may argue that Ukraine should have the right to join NATO, the result is conflict that could escalate to World War III.  That is certainly not in anyone's interest.

It should be noted that World War II was triggered when Germany and the Soviet Union invaded Poland.  Britain and France declared war to free Poland.  At the conclusion of the war, Russia retained the whole of Poland.  Everyone was war weary and abandoned Poland - and most of Eastern Europe - to a half century of tyranny.  Yes, it was absolutely unfair to those nations, but the alternative was considered worse.  Is defending Ukraine worth the costs?  We didn't intervene to this degree when Russia invaded Chechnya.  We didn't do much when Russia carved out a chunk of Georgia.  We didn't risk war when Russia claimed Crimea.  Why now?

If we could abandon Ukraine in order to keep Russia out of an alliance with China, would that be a good trade?  Would it be appeasement or realpolitik?  I tend toward the later position.

Captain Kirk Boldly Goes to Space

William Shatner took a flight on Blue Origin's New Shepard rocket this morning, ending Wally Funk's brief tenure as the oldest person to go to space; Funk is 82 and Shatner is 90.  Combined with last month's civilian crew of the Inspiration 4 on a SpaceX Dragon and the current Russian film crew on the International Space Station, it is clear that access to space is expanding rapidly.  As with many innovations, the wealthy are the first to enjoy the new technology.  Soon, prices will drop and allow more access to space.  Whereas I tell my kids that there were no iPads when I was a kid, they will tell their kids that there were no space hotels when they were kids.

Vintage Space

Recently I discovered Vintage Space hosted by Amy Shira Teitel and I'm surprised how long it took for me to encounter it.  Some years ago, a friend told me that he believed the moon landings were a hoax.  I immediately set to the task of demonstrating that we had landed on the moon.  Many times!  In the process, I became a fan of the US Space Program from the 1960s and early 70s.  I spent a lot of time on the NASA website and created spreadsheets of Space Race that broke down the satellite launches and manned spacecraft from both the US and Russia.  Amazingly, Vintage Space covers exactly that window.  It is all about the Apollo Program, covering the developments that fed into Apollo and all the current advances that are Apollo's progeny.  Amy is an extreme Apollo-phile, which is both good and bad.

 

To the good, between her blog and her YouTube channel, she has a vast encyclopedia of information about the space program and related science topics.  Fascinated with space history, she somehow turned that into a paying gig.  Way to go!

 

To the bad, she is something of a downer when proposed missions don't meet her Apollo achievement bar.  Thus, she is less than excited by the proposed SpaceX repeat of Apollo 8, the 1968 trip around the moon.  Been there, done that.  True, but we haven't been there and done that in 45 years.  A refresher with a new capsule might not be a bad idea.  Yes, she grants that is so but this isn't part of a larger program.  It's just a one off funded by a couple super rich tourists.  This is not advancing space exploration or space science.  She makes an excellent point but humans haven't left Earth orbit in decades and this will get the ball rolling.  She's also less than keen on landing people on Mars as that will suck all the funding from cheaper missions that will better expand human knowledge of space.  Yeah, kind of a downer but that is on her soapbox channel.

 

After watching just a couple of her videos, it became clear that I had only scratched the surface when I did my deep dive into the US Space Program.  Thumbs way up for Vintage Space.

The Sad State of NASA

In the wake of the Columbia Disaster (February 1, 2003), it was determined that the space shuttle would be retired by 2010 and would thus need a replacement.  The initial replacement was the Constellation Program (begun in 2005) with the goal of launching astronauts into space by 2014.  President Obama cancelled the Constellation Program in 2009.  The Space Launch System (SLS) was started in 2010, replacing the Constellation Program.  The last space shuttle mission was flown in July of 2011.  This article has NASA putting astronauts in space in 2019 at the soonest but more likely 2021, a ten year gap in manned NASA launches.  So, knowing that the shuttle needed a successor, NASA will have spent 16 years to make it (2005 to 2021).

 

On October 4, 1957, the Soviet Union launched Sputnik and the Space Race.  Project Mercury saw its first rocket test on August 21, 1959.  Called Little Joe 1, it was a failure.  By December of that year, Sam the chimpanzee was launched into space.  In May of 1961, Alan Shepard became the first American in space.  NASA knew that Mercury was just the beginning and had the two-man capsules of Gemini ready for a test launch (April 1964) less than a year after the last Mercury rocket launched (May 1963).  The first Gemini manned mission was in May 1965.  Gemini wrapped up its 10 manned mission run in November of 1966.  In January 1967, the Apollo Program suffered a disastrous fire on the launch pad, killing 3 astronauts.  Even with the disaster, Apollo 7 launched in October of the following year.  Apollo 11 was on the moon in July 1969, less than 10 years since Little Joe 1.  Apollo 17 was the last moon landing.  Remaining rockets for further moon missions were used for Skylab, which was launched in May 1973.  The last of the Apollo rockets was used for the Apollo-Soyuz test in July 1975, which saw US astronauts shake hands with Soviet Cosmonauts in space.  US spaceflight ended until the shuttle was ready.  US spaceflight resumed on April 14, 1981, a gap of just under 6 years.  To duplicate that, we would need to launch astronauts in the next two months.

 

Clearly, NASA does not enjoy the budget it had during the 1960s but modern technology should dramatically reduce the costs and development time.  Really, if you have seen Hidden Figures in which all the calculations were done by hand with pencil, paper, and slide rules, how can progress not go much faster?  Instead, it is taking vastly longer to do things that we were doing more than 40 years ago.  NASA has suffered the fate of most government bureaucracies.  When it began, it had a purpose and clear goals.  Today it has an organizational chart and a budget.  Rather than having projects that need to get done, they are trying to find things to do, to keep busy, to defend their funding.

To the Edge of Space and Back

Just watched part of today's launch of a SpaceX Falcon 9 from Vandenberg Spaceport in California.  The rocket launched, dumped the 2nd stage and the package into low earth orbit, then turned around and landed on a ship in the ocean with amazing accuracy.  Watching the first stage descend and land was impressive.  With reusable rockets, the cost of getting into space is dropping.  With Russia and China both proposing ambitious space projects, a new space age is beginning.

Check out the video on YouTube.  The rocket launches just before the 20 minute mark and stage 1 sticks the landing around the 26 minute mark.

The Border has Never been More Secure

Sure, this is just one guy out of the millions but how does he keep coming back?  This catch and deport system we have is not doing the job.  It is time to revive the old practice of transportation.  It used to be that criminals were sent to penal colonies, such as Virginia or Australia.  The moon looks like an ideal site for a penal colony.  We can finally establish that moon base I was promised in 2001: A Space Odyssey and not be particularly concerned with safety.  Try coming back from there, amigo.

Monkeys to Mars

The Russians are training an elite team of rhesus monkeys to travel to the red planet and land sometime in 2017.  And so began the Planet of the Monkeys!

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3291456/Monkeys-heading-MARS-Russian-scientists-training-macaques-solve-puzzles-travel-space-2017.html

I think it is laughable that it is 'unclear' if the monkeys will return.  Duh!  Of course the monkeys won't be returning.  The Russians weren't too concerned about Laika, the first dog in space.  Heck, the Russians lost several cosmonauts during the Space Race thanks to their comparatively lax safety standards.  Best case scenario is that one or two of the monkeys remain on an orbiter while the others land on Mars.  The ones who land are there to stay.  Those on the orbiter might make a return trip to determine the requirements of such a trip.  The logistics of keeping the monkeys alive and well for a trip to and from Mars seem daunting.  Will they be trained not to throw poop on the control panel?

 

We've landed probes and rovers on Mars and have had orbiters map Mars.  The next logical step is getting living creatures there.  The Russians have no experience beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO), so this is more necessary for them than for the US.  Still, the Russians are planning a big space program while NASA can't even get its astronauts to the International Space Station (ISS) without hitching a ride on a Russian Soyuz.

 

I went to the Houston Space Center several years ago and saw amazing things and heard about impressive plans.  That was five years ago.  Five years after Kennedy called for America to put a man on the moon, we had completed Project Mercury and were wrapping up Gemini.  Today, we don't even have a vessel for our astronauts to fly.  The closest thing is the SpaceX Dragon which is currently delivering supplies to the ISS.  Yes, we can't get monkeys in space but the Russians are going to send some to Mars.  Who won the Space Race?  Who won the Cold War?

 

Obama Success

Yes, Obama has had a success and I had thought it was a massive blunder at the time.  I vented my irritation at the President in a blog post.  However, events have come to pass that show great promise at lower cost.  No, not Obamacare but space exploration.

When NASA's Constellation Project was slashed so the president could expand the food stamp program and his doomed Stimulus, I was aghast.  The US had space superiority and now we were hitching rides on Russian Soyuz capsules.  The US space program looked to be a casualty of Obama's spending priorities.  As it happens, the private space companies are making leaps and bounds.  SpaceX is the standout with its Falcon rocket and Dragon space capsule; SpaceX is running resupply missions to the International Space Station (ISS) and will soon be able to shuttle astronauts for a fraction of the price of the space shuttles.  Orbital Science Corporation (OSC) is a big player in satellites but is aiming to also resupply the ISS with its Cygnus spacecraft.

What is truly funny about this is it fits what I have long said about most issues: get the government out and the prices will drop and more will get accomplished.  How did I end up on the wrong side of this argument?  Mostly, it is because space is still a government domain.  Even all this private activity is funded through government contracts.  Getting into space and bringing back something of value is still a ways off.  This is why space tourism is likely to be the first moneymaker for private companies (e.g. Virgin Galactic).  Eventually, we'll see mining operations on the moon and then elsewhere but that is still beyond the market.  But not for long.

The Mars One project has a hundred thousand volunteers to migrate to the red planet in 2023.  It would be a one way trip and yet there are plenty of applicants.  Even the founder of SpaceX, Elon Musk, plans to die on Mars.

Here is the interesting point: Obama's success is a case where he defunded a government agency and let the private market take over.  This is precisely the opposite of what he has done with health care, the car companies, banks, mortgages, student loans, etc.  While all of these are seeing rising costs, NASA is seeing a drop in the price of resupply missions.  Perhaps the president could learn from this.

Neil Armstrong, RIP

The first man to set foot on the moon has died.  Neil Armstrong landed on the moon in July of 1969 when I was 2 years old and Nixon was 6 months into his first term.  The last moon landing took place in December of 1972 when I was 5 and Nixon was finishing his first term.  No one has gone beyond low earth orbit since then.

President George W. Bush proposed to go to Mars and the Constellation program was born.  The plan was to return to capsules - like Mercury, Gemini, and Apollo - when the shuttle was retired.  We would return to the moon as a way station to Mars.  In the wake of the financial panic of 2008 and the funding issues of government, Obama canceled Constellation in 2010.  Rather than the moon, we could perhaps try for an asteroid.  Much as I admire cutting government budgets, it is hard to swallow when the President found nearly a trillion dollars for his failed stimulus and has run trillion dollar deficits every year he has been President.  NASA's budget is around $20 billion a year, a pittance.

I have often said that government does not invest but, in the case of NASA, I may be wrong.  The technological achievements of the space program brought a great many new products to the consumer, Tang being the least of them.  Certainly, NASA has more long term benefits than food stamps ($71 billion) or Ethanol subsidies ($6 billion).

Neil Armstrong and many other astronauts from the Golden Age of the US Space Program spoke out in opposition to Obama's plan to dump Constellation.  Armstrong, who became something of a recluse after he left NASA, was a rarity on the national stage so his comments on this had added weight.  Nonetheless, Constellation was ended.

 

The US had unquestioned dominance in space and it has been abandoned.  SpaceX and its Dragon may provide another means to get to the International Space Station but the moon and Mars are unlikely in the near future.  Whereas Columbus was followed by the likes of Drake, Magellan, and Cook, Armstrong and the Apollo astronauts have seen 40 years of nothing.  The giants of the US Space Program are dying and there is no one to replace them.

Catch a Dragon by the Tail

The US is back in space.  SpaceX, a private space agency, launched the Dragon capsule this week on a Falcon rocket.  Today, the capsule intercepted the International Space Station (ISS) and docked.  Less than a year after the Shuttle was retired, NASA has an alternative route to space.  Dragon is not expected to transport crew until 2016, so it is just an unmanned resupply vessel for the time being. Thus, US Astronauts must still use the Soyuz at $63 million a flight thanks to the Russian monopoly on manned spaceflight.

Pleased as I am, this is low earth orbit (LEO) stuff but it doesn't touch what we were doing 40 years ago.  SpaceX can be a great competitor for the Russian Soyuz but it's not Apollo.  The Constellation program was supposed to get us back to the moon and beyond but that has been scrapped.  Yes, money is tight but retiring the shuttle (very expensive each launch) and using a private contractor for ISS resupply (much cheaper) should allow for the restart of Constellation.

The entire space program from 1959 to 1973 cost $109 billion (adjusted for inflation for 2010 dollars), roughly an eighth of the 2009 Stimulus.  NASA's current budget is $18 billion a year (0.5% of the federal budget), which is less than the Department of Energy.  DOE has done a great job, tossing taxpayer dollars into wonderful 'investments' like Solyndra (bankrupt), NRG Energy (Bankrupt), and Abound Solar (laying off workers).  Or how about the Department of Homeland Security, which has a $55 billion budget.  I would be fine with abolishing that department altogether - especially TSA.  Use half the cash for deficit reduction and the rest for NASA, provided NASA returns to space exploration and drops the Muslim outreach.

SpaceX to the International Space Station

SpaceX, the private space transport company, is going to the space station. Having won a contract from NASA to resupply the space station, SpaceX is sending an unmanned Dragon spacecraft on its first mission to do so. In December of 2010, the Dragon was successfully launched into orbit and returned to earth. This time, if all goes well, it will dock with the space station and deliver food and equipment. In the near future, it could become a competitor to the Russian Soyuz capsule that now has a monopoly on ferrying astronauts to and from the space station. America might get back in space, thanks to a private firm. The SpaceX website is great fun for the space enthusiast.

http://www.spacex.com/

The Dragon is an impressive craft, designed to transport up to 7 astronauts. It also has integrated rockets that can bring it to a safe landing in case of emergency, an improvement over the Launch Escape System of Apollo. It is strange to see a return to capsules after decades of shuttle launches. However, the capsule is both cheaper and safer, which might provide for a more robust space program at much lower cost. Let us hope.

Abandoning Space

On March 10, President Obama canceled the Constellation Program. With this decision, the United States will no longer be able to place astronauts in space once the space shuttle is retired later this year. Just as China is working on a space program and even Hugo Chavez wants to team with the Russians for a launch facility in Venezuela, the US is throwing in the towel. We must now hitch a ride on Russian rockets, which I expect will be increasingly more expensive as they realize they have a monopoly on space travel. What will happen if they refuse? Perhaps Virgin Galactic will be able to taxi American astronauts to the international space station.

Obama has said that the US cannot afford the expense of the Constellation Program. Funding for the next 15 years was projected to be $217 billion, a little over one fourth of the cost of last year's Stimulus. And who knows how much Health Care Reform will eventually cost. So, yes, we cannot afford it but that could be used as a reason to stop all of the spending that Obama hasn't canceled.

However, this change has allowed NASA scientists the free time to help Toyota figure out their brake problem. Ah, I can just image all the kids with dreams of being astronauts and rocket scientists.