What if Trump had not entered the Presidential Race? Would the remaining candidates have even thought to raise the immigration issue? I think it is highly unlikely. If not for Trump, we might have seen Jeb and Rubio discussing comprehensive immigration reform. Rand Paul would have been generally all right with that. Really, most of them wouldn't have wanted to take the Trump position because it would make them a target for accusations of racism. Trump was willing to take the heat and hasn't wavered on this core issue. It is the foundation of his popularity. Who else would have suggested a halt to Muslim immigrants/refugees? Oh, they asked for better vetting but no one dared turn off the spigot. Except for Trump. And once Trump blazed that trail, Speaker Ryan echoed it.
Immigration has been a raw nerve among the average voter for a long time, getting more sensitive with each passing year. It does not help matters that the Washington elites from both parties keep talking about comprehensive immigration reform and paths to citizenship. No establishment politician has advocated against the current transformational immigration. Democrats want the voters and Republicans want the cheap labor. How about what the American voter wants? Too bad, so sad.
With that in mind, what will happen if Trump crashes and burns in Iowa like Howard Dean did in 2004? Will the new frontrunner seek to acquire Trump's supporters by adopting his stands on immigration or will the issue fade into the background? I think most of the field would be only too happy to see the immigration debate go away. Even Cruz, the person most likely to move into the lead, would probably put immigration on a backburner. Jeb "Illegal immigration is an act of love" Bush and Marco "I wouldn't reverse Obama's executive order on immigration" Rubio would take it off the stove altogether.
With no other candidate who can credibly pick up the immigration baton, Trump is going to have staying power even if Iowa doesn't go well. Other candidates will drop out as donor cash dries up but money is not an obstacle for Trump. As long as he pushes the immigration issue, he can collect delegates all the way to the convention. If he doesn't win outright, he will still have the option to be a big factor. However, that depends on if he would stick around once he is mathematically eliminated. Should that come to pass, will he shrug and say, "I gave it a shot" or will he stick around to influence the party platform on immigration?
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