Saturday, May 21, 2016

An Unexpected Turn of Events

For months, there has been speculation that the Republicans would have a contested convention in which Donald Trump would duke it out with Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, and the Republican establishment.  It was going to be exciting and probably destroy the Republican Party for a generation, if not longer, regardless of the outcome.  But Ted Cruz lost in Indiana and dropped out leaving the field clear for Trump to get the 1237 delegates he needed.  Exciting convention averted.

Also for months, it has been said that Hillary will easily win the nomination.  In fact, she should get the necessary delegates in the next batch of primaries.  However, there is a problem.  Thanks to the super delegate system, Bernie will be well within the margin for a switch by these party leaders to make him the nominee.  Even though Hillary will have secured in excess of the 2382 she needs before the convention, there is yet wiggle room.  Super delegates aren't locked to the candidate like those earned in the primaries and caucuses.  Thus, if Hillary was suddenly indicted by DOJ, the super delegates could abandon her en masse and Bernie would get the nomination.

Ever since the 2000 election disaster, Democrats have been big fans of popular vote rather than delegates.  In that regard, Hillary has crushed Bernie.  She has received 12,989,134 votes to Sanders 9,957,889, a gap of more than 3 million.  She has garnered 56% of the popular vote to Bernie's 43%.  Clearly, she should be the nominee.  However, her trend is not good.  Her portion of the popular vote is shrinking.  In February, she won 59.7% of the votes.  In March, she dropped to 58.2%.  April was 55.4%.  In May, she has fallen to 46.3%.  It is too late for Bernie to overtake Hillary in the primaries but you can be assured that party bosses are aware of this trend too.  Will super delegates reconsider?
 
We were promised a contested convention, it was just assumed that it would be the Republicans who would be having it.  Apparently not.

No comments: