Tuesday, May 3, 2016

Trump is the Nominee

With Ted Cruz suspending his campaign after his loss in Indiana, Trump is the presumptive nominee.  Indiana was a last chance for Cruz to prevent Trump from getting the 1237 that would preclude a floor fight at the convention.  No floor fight, no chance for Cruz.  As for Kasich, he is in Neverland and doesn't want to grow up.  He wins the state where he is the sitting governor and thinks that makes him a competitor.  I wonder how long before he suspends his campaign.  He may not.  He can't catch up to Cruz in delegates, so what is he thinking?  It will be fun while it lasts.
 
The Republican Party has no one but itself to blame for having Trump as the nominee.  After years of betraying their voters, the voters decided to pick an extreme outsider.  George Will thinks it is the duty of every Republican to vote for Hillary to prevent a Trump presidency.  The establishment will have its choice, the voters be damned.  If only we had this sort of fire from the establishment through the last 7 years, maybe the Republican base wouldn't have voted for Trump.  Ah, the schadenfreude!  Really, a desire to inflict pain on the establishment may explain the current situation.
 
Interestingly, there is now a poll that shows Trump beating Hillary.  Can he pick up enough independents and disaffected Democrats to make up for the conservatives and establishment Republicans that he will lose?
 
Trump is a mixed bag.  If he follows through with his plans on immigration, he may delay a descent into madness that is currently falling upon Europe.  As for other policies, I am doubtful.  He has admitted being a crony capitalist, is comfortable with a big and intrusive government, and spouts a foreign policy that Ron Paul could love (except for that bombing ISIS bit).  His Supreme Court picks are likely to be in the mushy middle, a serious problem with the power the court has accumulated.  His habit of attacking opponents on a personal level is troubling but it wouldn't be much different from the current president.

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