Stumbled onto this poll a few days ago under the headline "New poll analysis finds a wasted summer for Donald Trump and a boost for Hillary Clinton." Huh. Let's check it out. The poll showed daily results since July 10. At that time, Hillary trailed, 40.3% to 42.7%. As of August 18, when I saw the headline, She was leading 44% to 43.4%. Therefore, Hillary saw her numbers rise by 3.7 points in the selected window of time while Trump improved by less than a point. However, this ignores the ups and downs that the poll shows. Hillary fell to a low of 40% on July 14 and hit her peak of 46.3% on August 14. Wow, she had lost 2.3 points in the 4 days prior to the headline. Huh. Trump fell to a low of 41.6% on August 14 (coincident to Hillary's high) and had a peak of 47.4% on July 28, during the Democratic Convention. As of today, the poll shows Trump leading, 45% to 43%. Based on that, Hillary is up 2.7 since the poll started while Trump is up 2.3. So, who wasted the summer?
I have no qualms with the poll but the story associated with it was misleading. Heck, if the story had been written a few days earlier, it could have taken advantage of Hillary's nearly 5 point advantage. However, as of today, the numbers have turned and it is Trump who is up 2 points. At this point, the polls are not particularly important. Once both candidates start hurling mud in TV commercials, then the polls become more reliable. Let's see what the polls say after the a debate or two and then we'll have something to discuss.
It should also be remembered that the US has 50 presidential elections, not just 1. It should be recalled that Romney was within a point on several national polls but trailed in important swing states. As such, Obama had a comfortable margin for his re-election. Currently, Trump is trailing is some must win swing states, giving Hillary a clear electoral advantage.
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