Demographic Collapse

Here is an article that delves into Elon Musk's concern about shrinking populations in developed countries.  It is an interesting article with graphs, tables, projections, and potential consequences but it doesn't ask the important question: why have fertility rates plummeted?

 

In the comments section, one person suggests that secular regions see much lower fertility rates than religious ones.  This certainly reflects the situation in Europe - which has embraced secularism - and has very low fertility vs. the Islamic Middle East which has high fertility rates.  This is surely a factor.

 

What is more likely the reason for the collapse in fertility in the West is the social safety net.  Programs throughout the industrialized world have been implemented to guarantee an income and healthcare to the elderly.  In the United States, there is Social Security and Medicare.  Prior to these programs, people had to count on their children to take care of them in their old age.  When these programs came into being, the government guaranteed that other people's children would take care of them in their old age.  Unless someone had a real desire for offspring (an expensive and time-consuming commitment), one would be better off not having kids.  Europe was the first to embrace the cradle to grave safety net and is the first to suffer the inevitable cost-benefit analysis of rearing children.  Whereas it used to be that more kids would mean more workers on the farm and eventually more adults to support elderly parents, it is now a case of fewer children incurring lower costs to raise while satisfying the desire for parenthood for those who want them.  Therefore, the best way to reverse the fertility crisis would be to abolish the social safety net.  If you want the workers of tomorrow to support you in old age, you need to contribute to having workers of tomorrow.

 

Even if governments were to abolish the safety nets, the development of robots may provide a new safety net that will cause the demographic problem to persist.  The Japanese are far along in developing robots to take care of its aging population.  A robot labor force could thus exacerbate the demographic collapse.  It will be even worse when Skynet comes online.