Iowa Caucus 2024

Donald Trump has won 98 of 99 counties in Iowa, garnering a majority (51%) of the votes.  The one county that he did lose, Johnson County, he lost to Nikki Haley by 1 vote.  It should be noted that many Democrats participated in the caucus by changing their voter registration on the day of the caucus.  Such voters invariably chose Haley.  Though Haley won a county, DeSantis was second with 21% of the votes, Haley was 3rd with 19%, and Ramaswamy - my favored candidate - was last with 8% of the vote.  Ramaswamy suspended his campaign and endorsed Trump.

With Ramaswamy out of the race, that leaves three going into New Hampshire.  Haley is expecting a strong showing and has already announced it is a two-person race after Iowa.  In fact, polling in New Hampshire indicates Trump will win with 40% of the vote and Haley will have a strong showing around 30%.  If that holds, Haley will hope for an upset in her home state of South Carolina.  If Trump wins both New Hampshire and South Carolina, the campaign is over.

Will it be Trump v. Biden again?  If so, I would expect Reagan's question: "Are you better off today than you were four years ago?"

Iowa Caucus Results

Ted Cruz has pulled out a victory but that is a mixed blessing.  Only one Republican who won the Iowa Caucus - excepting those who were unopposed - went on to win the Presidency.

George Bush won it in 1980 but Reagan became the nominee

Reagan wasn't opposed in 1984

Bob Dole won it in 1988 but George Bush became the nominee

Bush was unopposed in 1992.

Dole won in 1996 and then went on to lose to the incumbent, President Clinton

George W. Bush won in 2000 and went all the way.  There's your path, Ted!  It is an ugly path that did not end well.

George W. Bush was unopposed in 2004.

Mike Huckabee won it in 2008 but McCain became the nominee.

Rick Santorum won in 2012 but Romney got the nomination.

Trump and Rubio are still sorting out 2nd and 3rd place.

Among the Democrats, Hillary currently has a slight lead.  However, the Democrat winner of the Iowa Caucus has always been the eventual nominee since 1996.  And it didn't really count in 1992 because Tom Harkin, an Iowa Senator, was running and demolished everyone.  If Hillary can hold on to her lead, history is on her side for being the Democratic candidate.

 

Already, Huckabee (R) and O'Malley (D) are suspending their campaigns.  Now that the voters have spoken, the culling will being in earnest.  Huckabee pulled better numbers than Christie and Santorum.  Christie has some hope of improvement in New Hampshire but Santorum needs to call it quits.  Beyond the top three Republicans, Carson and Paul showed best.  Kasich is polling well in New Hampshire and may reboot there.  I don't know what Jeb's plan is; I can hardly wait to hear him spin this into a positive.

Trump Stumbles?

Donald Trump isn't participating in the last debate prior to the Iowa Caucus because Megyn Kelly is unfair to him.  Really?  With a normal candidate, this would be a serious gaffe, possibly fatal.  If you can't deal with a hostile reporter, what the heck are you going to do when North Korea, Iran, Russia, or some other hostile power challenges you?  If she was calling him names or libeling him, maybe I could see it.  Nope.

I'm not very familiar with Megyn Kelly.  I've watched her show a couple of times and seen clips on YouTube and such here or there.  She asks pointed questions of people from both sides of the aisle.  She appears to be a tenacious interrogator who has done her homework before an interview.  In fact, she has done such a good job with homework that she is usually stomping all over her 'guest' if the interview proves confrontational.  That she can do this with considerable charm and a winning smile makes her a real threat to even very experienced politicians.

 

With the Iowa Caucus just a week away, Trump is betting that people have already decided and the debate is more likely to hurt him than help him.  He's going to sit on his lead rather than risk a turnover.  An Iowa win will give Trump great momentum going to New Hampshire, where he leads.  A loss could be disastrous.  Recall that Howard Dean looked to be the eventual nominee for the Democrats in 2004 until he lost Iowa.  It broke the spell that had entranced the Democrat electorate and he vanished almost overnight.