Different Approaches Valid

Ten states account for 42% of the US population but 73% of the Covid infections and 81% of the Covid deaths.  What is it about these states that it hit so much harder than the rest of the country?  If you look only at New York, the state has 6% of the US population but 30% of the infections and 41% of the deaths.  One out of every 68 New Yorkers has been infected and 1 out of 877 has died.  The situation is dire.  However, should the strategy to protect against a worsening of the pandemic in New York also be used in Nebraska?  In Nebraska, only 1 out of every 708 is infected and 1 in 36,500 has died.  What of Hawaii?  1 in 2,344 infected and 1 in 101,000 dead.  Our news media is based in New York and thus the situation there is driving the story.  There should be 50 different strategies, each customized to the situation in that state.

States	Cases	Deaths	Lethality	Population	% of Infections	% of Deaths
NY	288,045	22,179	7.7%	19,453,561	30.0%	40.7%
NJ	109,038	5,938	5.4%	8,882,190	11.3%	10.9%
MA	54,938	2,899	5.3%	6,949,503	5.7%	5.3%
IL	43,903	1,933	4.4%	12,671,821	4.6%	3.5%
CA	42,934	1,694	3.9%	39,512,223	4.5%	3.1%
PA	41,165	1,669	4.1%	12,801,989	4.3%	3.1%
MI	37,778	3,315	8.8%	9,986,857	3.9%	6.1%
FL	31,528	1,073	3.4%	21,477,737	3.3%	2.0%
LA	26,773	1,729	6.5%	4,648,794	2.8%	3.2%
CT	25,269	1,924	7.6%	3,565,287	2.6%	3.5%

These are the numbers to date.  The Lethality is based only on those who have been tested as infected.  Recent studies indicate that the number of infections may be vastly larger than thought, dramatically reducing the lethality, likely below 1%.  Still, a lot of people are dead and this is a crisis in these states and extended lockdowns may be the needed remedy.  But Nebraska, Hawaii, and many other states are entirely justified in taking a different course.

  

Flatten the Curve

Some states, notably Georgia, are reopening their economies.  Many are critical of this.  However, the whole point of the lockdown was to flatten the curve, not wait out the virus.  In many states, the hospital and ventilator capacity is far from full usage.  When the number of infected who need hospitalization exceed the capacity, the death rate goes way up.  For example, Italy and New York City.  There is a balance to be struck.  We have enough data to know that the death rate for those under 40 is extremely low.  The news has reported the teen in France who died and the 20 something in New York but these are the exceptions not the rule.  According to antibody testing, the vast majority - possibly 50 to 80 times the reported infected - of infected people didn't need any medical intervention.  Older people should stay in lockdown but younger people should get back to work.  The vast majority of them - 99.9% - who do contract the disease will be fine and contribute to the goal of herd immunity.

However, for those opposed, it is great that only some states are opening up.  This provides a perfect test case without threatening everyone.  If Georgia doesn't suffer a massive uptick in critical cases in 3 to 4 weeks time, then Governor Kemp will be vindicated.  If the states finds its hospital capacity pushed beyond the limit and deaths skyrocket, then his critics will have all that stronger a case.  Let federalism work and the people of Georgia can benefit or suffer for their elective choice.

More Infected than We Thought?

In California, there has been testing for Covid-19 antibodies.  Officially, California has 27,689 infections as of April 16.  That represents 0.07% of the state's population.  However, antibodies have been found in 2.5 to 4.2% of those tested.  This could indicate that the infection has been far more widespread and the lethality is much, much lower.  Suppose that 2.5% of Californians contracted Covid-19; That would be 988,000 people.  Of that group, only 27,700 felt sick enough to get tested and show positive; that's around 3%, much lower than the proposed 20% that were going to end up in the hospital.  Lower even than the 5% that would be on ventilators.   952 people have died so far in California, which is a 0.1% fatality rate, about as lethal as the flu.

Clearly, the death tolls show this is not just a bad flu season.  Maybe this is more contagious than thought.  It may be just as deadly as the flu but twice as many people get it.  As in my last post, we need to discover the denominator of this disease.  We need to find out who has antibodies and set them free.

Plot Twist

Last week, an entire homeless shelter was tested for Covid-19.  Of the 397 tested, 146 were positive.  Now for the plot twist: none of them had symptoms.  37% infection rate and only 1 needed treatment.  According to the official numbers, only 0.5% of Massachusetts residents have been infected and it has been lethal for 3.9% of those infected.  But this could turn that story on its head.  What if 10% have been infected but most showed no signs.  In Massachusetts, that would be 700,000 infections with 1,245 deaths.  That would drop the lethality rate to 0.2%, about twice as bad as the flu but is it national lockdown bad?  We are so focused on the size of the numerator without knowing the denominator.  We are in desperate need for randomized testing to determine the denominator.

As of April 16, 665,000 Americans have tested positive and 34,613 have died.  That's a 5% fatality rate.  What if 6 million have been infected?  That would make it fatal in less than 1% of cases.  That we don't know and that the homeless shelter numbers came as such a surprise is reason for concern.

The Wild Geese (1978)

Allen Faulkner (Richard Burton) arrives secretly in London to meet with Sir Edward Matherson (Stewart Granger).  Faulkner is a mercenary leader.  Some years ago, he had been retained by President Limbani to help retake his country - somewhere around Congo - from usurpers but Limbani was killed en route to their meeting.  Sir Edward reveals that Limbani is alive but not for long.  Sir Edward would like to free Limbani to secure the rights to his country's copper mines.  Faulkner gathers his core team.  There is Rafer Janders (Richard Harris), Shawn Fynn (Roger Moore), Pieter Coetzee (Hardy Kruger), and Sandy Young (Jack Watson).  They recruit 40 or so men and fly to Africa for training.  On Christmas Day, they insert via parachute to rescue Limbani and secure an airport for their extraction.  Everything goes perfectly until their extraction is canceled.  Now the fun begins.

Some things are telegraphed from the start.  When Faulkner recruits Janders, his son is introduced and a proposed vacation is mentioned.  Gee, I wonder how that will go?  It announced that he was doomed, the one character whose fate was sealed from the moment he is introduced.  Disappointing.

This is an action film in the days before flipping, spinning, double-gun shooting nonsense. Overwhelming forces really are overwhelming. Casualties are high and, in the end, it was all for nothing. Still, it was exciting getting there.

Thumbs up.

The Saint (season 1)

Having time to spare, I have watched the entirety of the first season of The Saint.  The funniest thing about the show is the James Bond connections.  In the first episode, Shirley Eaton appears.  She is most famous for playing Jill Masterson in Goldfinger, a role in which she was painted gold.  In the 7th episode, Honor Blackman appears as a secretary and mistress to a wealthy Bahamian.  Like Eaton, she is more famous for a role in Goldfinger: she played Pussy Galore.

Simon is a Robin Hood-like character who takes from the criminal and gives to the victim.  Simon knows everyone and every policeman knows Simon.  He is famous wherever he goes.  The plots vary.  He may solve a murder mystery in Nassau, tame a shrew in Spain, save a woman from her bluebeard husband in England, avenge a murdered reporter in New York City, or wheedle a donation to an orphanage from a greedy countess in Rome.  Simon is wealthy but it is not clear why he is wealthy.  He travels constantly.  He is most likely to be found in New York City, London, or Rome but also finds himself in Mexico, Florida, the Bahamas, Spain, Switzerland, and Paris. It is clear that Roger Moore's James Bond was almost a cut and paste job of his role as Simon Templar.

The Saint premiered on October 4, 1962. Less than a week later, on October 10th, 1962, Sean Connery hit the big screen as James Bond in Dr. No. Strange coincidence.

A fun light-hearted show that serves as a travelogue and adventure series. Thumbs up.

L.A. Story (1991)

Harris Telemacher (Steve Martin) is a TV weatherman in Los Angeles - Temperature 72 degrees.  He has had 5 heart attacks - imaginary - because he is depressed.  One evening, while driving on the freeway with his girlfriend (Marilu Henner), the car stalls and he pops the hood.  The digital road sign said 'Hiya.'  Puzzled, he ignores it.  The sign is insistent.  Soon, he is having a conversation with the sign and it tells him that the weather will change his life twice.

Sara McDowel (Victoria Tennant) is an English journalist who has come to L.A. to meet with her ex-husband (Richard E. Grant) and interview locals for an article.  By chance, she meets Harris at a luncheon where they have instant chemistry.

The movie is full of gags about Los Angeles and has lots of cameos.  Patrick Stewart plays a snooty Maitre D' at an exclusive restaurant.  Chevy Chase, Woody Harrelson, Rick Moranis, and several others appear in small roles.  There is a road rage shooting that makes it look like such things were not only common, but scheduled.  Sarah Jessica Parker appears as SanDeE* the bouncy girl from a Gap like clothier.  This was a breakout role for her that moved her from mousy supporting roles to Sex in the City lead role.  Fun from beginning to end, a quirky rom-com that pokes fun at L.A.

Recommended.

Porco Rosso (1992)

Porco Rosso (Michael Keaton) was cursed to be an anthropomorphic pig for reasons never quite explained.  However, his flying skills are unmatched.  A former WWI Italian flying ace, he now makes a living as a bounty hunter, shooting down pirates.  Tired of the constant trouncing, the pirates employ an ace of their own, Curtis the American (Cary Elwes).

Porco has an unrequited love with Gina, the widow of several pilots.  In fact, his best friend during the war had only just married her when he was killed.  Of course, as is obvious to everyone but Porco, she is also in love with him despite his porcine visage.

The art, as usual for Miyazaki, is fabulous.  The flying is exciting and fun.  The characters are often cartoonish in a standard anime way.  However, the failure to explain why Porco is cursed (it seems that his survival during a particularly vicious dogfight is the cause) or provide a way to undo it was a failing.  Either provide a really good reason for an unbreakable curse along the lines of Sisyphus, Tantalus, Prometheus, etc. or have a way to reverse it like Pinocchio, the Beast (from Beauty & the Beast), Snow White, etc.

Thumbs up!

Smokey and the Bandit Trilogy

Smokey and the Bandit

Big Enos and his son, Little Enos, have a challenge: drive to Texarkana, TX, pickup 400 cases of beer, and return it to Atlanta in 24 hours for $80,000 prize.  The catch is that it is bootlegging.  No one so far has succeeded when Big Enos challenges the Bandit (Burt Reynolds).  Bandit accepts and recruits Cledus "Snowman" Snow (Jerry Reed) to drive the truck while he played blocker in a new Trans Am.  All goes well on the way to Texas but a runaway bride (Sally Field) hitches a ride with the Bandit.  Her would-be father-in-law, Sheriff Buford T. Justice (Jackie Gleason) is determined to bring her back to the altar, stateliness and jurisdictions be damned.

The movie is a joyride from beginning to end with plenty of humor, exciting car chases, and a bit of romance.  Sheriff Justice's police cruiser suffers throughout the chase, losing the door, the roof, and any semblance of a street-legal auto.  Burt Reynolds is all easy-going charm and fun to Jackie Gleason's hilarious storm and fury.

Highest recommendation!

Smokey and the Bandit II

Big Enos is running for governor of Texas against John Conn (David Huddleston).  After a couple of outlandish pranks, the sitting governor calls both candidates to his office and tells them to knock it off.  However, Big Enos discovers that the governor has a package he wants delivered.  Ha!  This might be just the thing to give him an edge.  If only he knew someone who could get a package from Florida to Texas in short order: the Bandit!  He contacts Cledus who in turn finds the Bandit.  The Bandit is a drunken basket case, a character entirely unlike the one that charmed audiences in his last outing.  In order to get him back in shape for the haul, he calls in the former girlfriend (Sally Field) who happens to be at the altar with Sheriff Justice's son again.  Yes, she runs off before the ceremony.  How original.  If this isn't bad enough already, the "package" is a pregnant elephant.  And it gets worse.  Sheriff Justice calls in his brothers, Reginald the Canadian Mountie and Gaylord the Texas patrolman, both played by Jackie Gleason.  Wait, there's more!  Dom DeLuise plays an Italian gynecologist met on the road and abducted to watch over the elephant.  Ugh.

The movie is a disaster from start to finish, a pathetic effort to rekindle the exciting chase from the last one.  The Bandit is mostly a screwup trying to be famous again and Sally Fields plays their real life breakup on screen.  Mostly sad and depressing, rarely getting the laughs.  The big showdown between police cars and semi-trucks in a demolition derby is something only a 12 year-old could love.

Do not see this movie!

Smokey and the Bandit III

Bufford T Justice is celebrating his retirement when Big Enos and Little Enos crash the party and bet that the sheriff can't drive from Florida to Texas with a stuffed fish.  It's his badge vs. their $250,000.  He accepts.  Justice and Junior travel across the south, constantly dodging efforts to stop them (all engineered by Big and Little Enos).  Desperate to stop the sheriff, they hire Cledus in place of the Bandit and send him to steal the fish.  At the finish line, Justice not only arrives with the fish to win the bet but also confronts the Bandit.  In a strange cameo, Burt Reynolds is sitting in the Trans Am when Justice arrives.  He explains that he is the Yin to the sheriff's Yang.  I complete you.  Ugh.  Justice agrees and lets the Bandit - once again Cledus - drive away.  Let the chase begin again.

I thought the last one was sad.  This is an even weaker plot.  There are many cringe-worthy scenes included, notably a night at a motel/brothel.  There was also the nudist colony.

Avoid this one too.

Chasing the Dime

Henry Pierce is a chemist who is developing molecular computing.  He is a workaholic which has recently led to his breakup from his longtime girlfriend.  No sooner has he moved into an apartment than he gets a phone number that once belonged to an escort.  The calls from horny men impel him to find out who this woman is and why he has her number.  Soon, he finds himself investigating her disappearance.  He goes so far that he attracts the attention of people who don't want her found.  Worse, he is soon a suspect for her disappearance, having left fingerprints in multiple places that he shouldn't have been.  In fact, the inspecting police officer thinks Pierce is the prime suspect and his 'good Samaritan' routine is just a ruse.  He's seen it before.

A departure from his usual protagonist, Pierce nonetheless fits in the mold of a Connelly detective.  To him, the investigation is no different from a science experiment.  He just needs to examine the facts and find the likely chain of events.  It was exactly this attention to detail that brought him to the attention of a belligerent pimp.

As with all Connelly books, it all ties together.  There are no loose ends and no coincidences.  Of note, a couple characters from previous novels appear or are mentioned.  The only drawback is that it is sometimes cringy to watch Pierce investigate something that he has no business investigating.  Even so, it's a great read and highly recommended.

Vivarium (2019)

The story opens with a hatchling in a nest pushing an unhatched egg and another hatchling out of the nest.  Now alone, the mother bird returns and feeds it.  It is soon clear that this hatchling is not the same species of bird.  It is a Cuckoo, a species known for laying eggs in the nests of other birds.

Elsewhere, Gemma (Imogen Poots) is teaching her class of elementary students how to be trees in the wind.  After class, she and boyfriend Tom (Jesse Eisenberg) go looking for a house.  Though the salesman seems like a goof, they drive out to the Yonder housing development with him to look at a house.  Every house looks identical.  The house is furnished but, while looking at the backyard, Martin vanishes.  His car is gone.  Bizarre!  They laugh and shrug then get in their car to leave.  Hours later, they have still not found their way out of the housing development and the car runs out of gas in front of the very house they viewed.  All efforts to leave always find them back at the same house.  Then they find a baby in a box with a note.  The note says "raise the child and you will be released."

An interesting Twilight Zone premise that doesn't satisfy.  The boy grows at an alarming rate - he is like a 9 or 10 year-old boy after 3 months - but they are clearly not raising him.  Mostly they just feed him.  The boy is a mimic, able to quote back Tom and Gemma in their own voices.  He asks for attention as if he were still an infant, shrieking until his needs are met.  Tom and Gemma offer no discipline, only helplessness.  They never named the boy, merely calling him 'the boy.'

What is missing is an explanation.  Who are the 'people' who abduct human couples to raise these quick-growing offspring?  Why is this child-rearing strategy a logical choice for a vastly more advanced species?  It's like the scriptwriter said 'wouldn't it be cool if an alien species acted like a Cuckoo?' and then never developed the story beyond that.

Overall, it goes nowhere.  Skip.