Wednesday, March 9, 2016

Democrat Delegate Mathematics

You just have to love the Democrat primary process.  Bernie had a surprise upset win in Michigan but somehow won fewer delegates than Hillary!  Oh, those super delegates.  This is the sort of event that will cause Bernie voters to not vote for Hillary in November.  Worse, this is an unforced error.  Hillary is crushing Bernie and could afford to let him have more delegates.  In a winner-take-all system (dumping super delegates into the pool with the rest), Hillary would have 1,023 to Bernie's 516.  Hillary has won 12 states and Bernie has won 9.  Hillary won 4 of the 5 states with over 100 delegates.  Bernie won 5 of the 6 states with fewer than 40 delegates.  There would be no hard feelings under a system that rewarded these facts.  The super delegates - most of which pledged support before the base had a chance to vote - can only infuriate the Bernie voters.
 
Using the abstruse current rules, Hillary has 1223 delegates to Bernie's 574.  Hillary only needs to win 39% of the remaining delegates to secure the nomination while Bernie would need 61%.  As it stands, Bernie has won 40% of the popular vote to Hillary's 60%.  I don't see that flipping.  As I have noted before, unless she is indicted or her persistent cough is shown to be a serious medical issue, she is going to win the nomination.  She should disavow her super delegates - whether that is possible or not - and ask them to allocate themselves based on who wins the states they represent.  This would go a long way to mollifying Bernie voters and she will get the nomination anyway.

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