Republican Delegate Mathematics

Why are Rubio and Kasich still in the race?  Is there a possibility that either can win?  Let's look at the numbers:

32 States and Territories have not yet voted in the Republican Primary:



• 17 States and Territories are winner-take-all for a total of 901 delegates.
• 9 contests are proportional with 325 delegates.
• 6 are oddballs with actual delegates elected based on how they say they will vote but not necessarily bound by that.  This pool has 167 delegates which might be considered analogous to Democrat super delegates.

Rubio has 151 delegates, 1,086 shy of what he needs to win the nomination.  If he swept the winner-take-all states, he would still be 185 short.  He would need to secure 38% of the proportional and oddball delegates to win the nomination.  Thus far, he has only secured 15% of such delegates.  There is no chance that he can win the nomination by winning delegates, he will not be selected the nominee in a brokered convention, and he will cripple future prospects if he loses Florida next week.  There is no upside.  The only reason to stay is to force that brokered convention in which case he is announcing his status as a pawn to the establishment in an anti-establishment year.  A pawn to the establishment that he ran against to secure his seat in the Senate.

 

Kasich is event further back than Rubio but at least he got some delegates on Tuesday with a good showing in Michigan.  Still, with only 54 delegates, he needs 1,183 more to secure the nomination.  If he wins all the winner-take-all states, he will be 282 short.  That would require 57% of all the proportional and oddball delegates.  So far, he has only captured 5% of the delegates.  There is talk that he is hoping to secure the Vice Presidency.  If he wins in Ohio - a very valuable state in the general election - he will have a stronger hand.  If he loses, he's out.

 

Cruz has 359 delegates, 878 short of the magic 1237.  He needs to get 61% of the remaining delegates to win the nomination.  Not possible as long as the Rubio and Kasich are in the mix.  It will become nigh impossible depending on the results of next week.  His best hope is that Rubio and Kasich suspend their campaigns and the anti-Trump vote goes to him.  If Trump really does have a ceiling of support in the high 30s to low 40s, the math could turn around very quickly.

 

Trump has 458 delegates, 779 away from the nomination.  He needs 54% of the remaining delegates.  If the field remains as crowded as it is, he should win pluralities in a lot of the winner-take-all states.  Had the races to date been winner-take-all, Trump would have almost 200 additional delegates.  By far, he has the best odds of securing the nomination and avoiding a brokered convention.

 

Kasich has no elective future after his current stint as governor and thus has no reason to leave the campaign.  Rubio can only damage future prospects for elective office by remaining and would be wise to bow out and throw his support to whichever of the frontrunners he prefers.  Cruz will be mathematically eliminated before Trump.  Will he bow out at that point or also push for a brokered convention?  I'll blog on that if it comes to pass.