So far, 1404 delegates have been allocated in the Republican primaries. With his narrow victory in the state where he is currently serving as governor, John Kasich has collected 143 delegates, which puts him 1,094 away from clinching the nomination. There are 1,068 delegates that haven't been allocated. Hmmm. Let's suppose that Rubio will support Kasich and ask his delegates to vote for him. In that event, he could count on 312 delegates and only require 925, which is 87% of the remaining delegates. This is obviously not going to happen. Just look at how he did in every other race held yesterday. No chance. At this moment, Rubio still has more delegates than Kasich and has won 3 primaries to Kasich's 1 and he has suspended his campaign.
As it is, Trump needs to win 53% of the remaining delegates to capture the nomination outright. Entirely doable, especially with some winner-take-all states like New Jersey (51), Arizona (56), Pennsylvania (71), and especially California (172) still to come. Ted Cruz's path has become much tougher. With Kasich still in the running, the anti-Trump vote will remain split. Cruz needs 77% of the remaining delegates, which is nigh impossible now. The most likely outcomes are a Trump victory or a contested convention. It is possible that the absence of Rubio will boost either Cruz or Kasich to win close contests with Trump.
If no one has the 1237 delegates for the win, Kasich might be able to do some bargaining with either Trump or Cruz. Perhaps even Rubio could play a hand since he has enough delegates that may make a difference. It is a path fraught with peril. Trump has already won 21 contests, more than double Cruz (9); Rubio (3) and Kasich (1) are historical footnotes. Unless things turn dramatically in Cruz's favor tomorrow, Trump will have the plurality of delegates and be closest of anyone to 1237. To choose another candidate is to risk a Trump walkout and guarantee his voters go with him. If the Republican Party didn't want Trump, it should have coalesced around an anti-Trump candidate weeks ago. Of course, the person who had the best shot, Cruz, is detested by the establishment.
A contested convention that doesn't end with Trump as the nominee will likely bring about the most impressive third party run since Theodore Roosevelt's Bull Moose Party in 1912; this was the only election in which a third party captured more electoral votes than one of the traditional parties. There is a righteously indignant electorate and such a move could permanently crash the party.
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