Why the Electoral College?

Much is being made about Trump's 2012 tweets in favor of abolishing the Electoral College.  Now that he has won because of it, he approves.  Hmm.  In fact, he is right now and was wrong in 2012.  One should not be criticized for coming to the correct answer.  Let's consider the Electoral College:

Each state has a number of electoral votes equal to its representation in Congress.  For instance, California has 53 representatives in the House and 2 Senators, giving it 55 electoral votes.  On the other extreme, Wyoming has 1 representative in the House and 2 Senators, getting 3 electoral votes.  Representatives in the House are based on population whereas every state gets two senators.  Clearly, including senators in the electoral college skews away from a pure representation of popular will.  Yes, point taken.  Let's look at the recent election and remove electoral votes based on senate representation.

As Michigan is still counting, it will be removed from the calculations.

Trump won 29 states with 290 electoral votes.  Removing the 58 that come from senate representation drops his electoral total to 232.

 

Hillary won 20 states with 232 electoral votes.  Removing the 40 senators, her final total is 192.

 

As mentioned, representation in the House is based on population.  States that voted Hillary have fewer people in them than states that voted for Trump.  However, those states proved to have a higher turnout or broke more heavily for Hillary.  For example, Hillary won California 62% to 33%, a margin of 2.9 million votes.  What if she had won by only a million votes?  Electoral votes remain unchanged but suddenly Trump is the popular vote winner.

 

A move to popular vote would favor urban areas over rural areas.  It is far easier to organize voters in a city than in scores of towns in Middle America.

 

Consider 1992.  Bill Clinton had an electoral landslide with 370 electoral votes.  However, he only won 43% of the popular vote.  In the states, if no candidate breaks 50%, there is often a runoff between the two top candidates.  The electoral college serves as the automatic national runoff.